Markets
◆ FED FUNDS RATE  3.63% ◆ CPI (YoY)  4.2% ↑ ◆ UNEMPLOYMENT  4.3% ◆ GDP GROWTH Q1  +2.1% ▲ ◆ 10-YR TREASURY  4.37% → ◆ RETAIL SALES  +6.9% ↑ ◆ M2 GROWTH  5.6%  
EST. 2024 · VOLUME I AN INDEPENDENT ECONOMIC PUBLICATION BY CONNOR LEARY
★   Article Archive   ★

The Macro Brief

Complete Edition Archive · All Past Issues
BY CONNOR LEARY · 2025 ✦   ALL EDITIONS   ✦ VOL. I · UNITED STATES
9 EDITIONS PUBLISHED
High-rise office towers in a US financial district
Banking
The $936 Billion Wall: How America's Commercial Real Estate Debt Crisis Is Rewriting Regional Banking
Office delinquencies at a record 12.3%, a trillion-dollar refinancing deadline, and hundreds of community banks holding CRE exposures that exceed federal risk thresholds.
Published June 28, 2026
US Treasury bonds and bond market charts
Fixed Income
The Yield Reckoning: How a Hawkish Fed Is Rewriting the Rules of the Bond Market
A 15-basis-point spike in the 2-year Treasury on a single Fed day, credit spreads near multi-decade tights, and a trillion-dollar refinancing wall arriving just as rates are set to stay high.
Published June 21, 2026
Federal Reserve building
Monetary Policy
Higher for Longer, Confirmed: The Fed's Dot Plot and the End of the 2026 Rate-Cut Window
Tuesday's FOMC meeting will almost certainly end with rates held. The real story is the updated dot plot — and what it signals about whether 2026 rate cuts have been quietly erased.
Published June 14, 2026
AI Data Center Boom
Technology Economy6 min read
The AI Crutch: How a Trillion-Dollar Data-Center Boom Became the Load-Bearing Wall of the U.S. Economy
Federal Reserve economists now estimate that AI infrastructure spending is adding roughly 0.4 percentage points to quarterly GDP growth — a contribution large enough to single-handedly prevent two consecutive quarters of contraction.
PublishedJune 7, 2026
Money Supply
Money Supply5 min read
Too Much Money: Why the Fed's M2 Surge Is Making the Inflation Fight Harder Than It Looks
The Federal Reserve's own money stock report shows M2 at a record $22.8 trillion — and the implications for inflation are more serious than the headline CPI numbers suggest.
PublishedMay 31, 2026
Consumer Spending
Consumer Economy5 min read
The Debt-Fueled Consumer: America's Spending Resilience Is Running on Borrowed Time
Retail sales climbing at 4.9% look resilient on the surface — but beneath the headline, Americans are increasingly financing that spending with credit card debt at record-high interest rates.
PublishedMay 24, 2026
Debt Interest Crisis
Fiscal Policy6 min read
The $1 Trillion Bill: America's Debt Interest Crisis Is Reshaping the Federal Budget
For the first time in history, the United States will pay more than $1 trillion in interest on its national debt this year — a milestone that is quietly crowding out everything from defense to social programs.
PublishedMay 17, 2026
Labor Market Cooling
Labor Markets5 min read
The Soft Stall: America's Labor Market Is Cooling Without Breaking
April's 115,000-job print and decelerating wage growth expose a workforce caught in transition — no longer overheating, but not yet in distress.
PublishedMay 15, 2026
Housing Lock-In
Housing Market6 min read
The Locked Market: How the Mortgage Rate Trap Is Starving America's Housing Supply
With 30-year mortgage rates above 7% and more than half of all outstanding mortgages locked in below 4%, millions of homeowners are frozen in place — and the resulting supply crunch is keeping home prices elevated.
PublishedMay 15, 2026
Inflation Relapse
Inflation5 min read
Inflation Relapse: The April Price Surge That Rewrites the Fed's 2026 Playbook
A hotter-than-expected April CPI reading — driven by an energy shock, tariff pass-through, and sticky shelter costs — has eliminated the Fed's margin for error heading into the June rate decision.
PublishedMay 14, 2026
Tariff Trade Deficit
Trade Policy5 min read
The Tariff Dividend: How America's Trade Gap Has Narrowed — and What It's Actually Costing
America's goods and services deficit has compressed by more than half in early 2026 — but the shrinking trade gap is being driven by import collapse, not export strength, and the distinction matters enormously.
PublishedMay 14, 2026
Oil barrels
Energy & Commodities5 min read
The Price of Energy: Inside the Oil Market Forces Threatening to Reignite Inflation
A confluence of supply restraint, geopolitical friction, and fragile demand has crude oil back at the center of the macroeconomic debate.
PublishedApril 30, 2025