Upcoming Releases
July 2026
JUL
29
FOMC Rate Decision
Federal Reserve · 2:00 PM ET
HIGH
Why it moves markets: The Fed has now seen May and June CPI, June PCE, and two jobs reports since its last decision. Any signal of a pivot will reprice bonds, equities, and the dollar simultaneously.
What it means for you: If the committee signals a cut is near, variable-rate debt — HELOCs, credit cards, ARM mortgages — will start moving lower within weeks.
JUL
30
GDP Q2 2026 — Advance Estimate
Bureau of Economic Analysis · 8:30 AM ET
HIGH
Why it moves markets: The first read on Q2 economic growth — released the day after the FOMC decision, giving markets a complete picture of both Fed policy and economic momentum in a single 24-hour window.
What it means for you: A strong print confirms the economy can handle higher rates; a weak one increases the odds the Fed cuts sooner and more aggressively.
August 2026
AUG
1
ISM Manufacturing PMI — July 2026
Institute for Supply Management · 10:00 AM ET
MED
Why it moves markets: A leading indicator for factory activity. A reading above 50 signals expansion; below 50 signals contraction — watched closely for early recession signals.
What it means for you: Strong manufacturing usually means more jobs and higher wages in the months ahead.
AUG
5
ISM Services PMI — July 2026
Institute for Supply Management · 10:00 AM ET
MED
Why it moves markets: Services account for roughly 80% of U.S. economic output. This index is a better real-time read on the broader economy than its manufacturing counterpart.
What it means for you: When services slow, hiring in healthcare, hospitality, finance, and retail — the bulk of American jobs — tends to follow.
AUG
7
Employment Situation — Jobs Report July 2026
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 8:30 AM ET
HIGH
Why it moves markets: The most closely watched monthly release. Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and wage growth all land in a single report — a consistent market mover regardless of what the Fed just did.
What it means for you: Job creation and wage growth determine whether Americans are gaining or losing purchasing power — and give the Fed its clearest signal on whether to hold or cut rates.
AUG
12
Consumer Price Index — July 2026
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 8:30 AM ET
HIGH
Why it moves markets: First inflation data released after the July 29 FOMC meeting — will either confirm or challenge whatever the Fed just signaled about rate trajectory.
What it means for you: If this print continues to cool, September rate cut odds will climb sharply, with real implications for mortgage rates and savings yields.
AUG
13
Producer Price Index — July 2026
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 8:30 AM ET
MED
Why it moves markets: PPI leads CPI — rising producer costs often flow through to consumers within months, giving markets an early read on the future inflation trend.
What it means for you: A leading indicator for where grocery, gas, and goods prices are headed over the coming months.
AUG
15
Retail Sales — July 2026
Census Bureau · 8:30 AM ET
HIGH
Why it moves markets: Consumer spending drives 70% of the U.S. economy. Strong retail sales signal resilience and reduce expectations of aggressive rate cuts.
What it means for you: Shows whether Americans are still spending freely despite high prices and elevated borrowing costs — a key check on economic health headed into fall.
AUG
21
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City · Aug 21–23
HIGH
Why it moves markets: The Fed chair's keynote address at Jackson Hole has historically been used to telegraph major policy shifts — rate cuts, QE, and QT have all been previewed here. Markets parse every word.
What it means for you: If the Fed uses this platform to signal cuts are coming in September, mortgage rates and savings yields will begin moving before the official decision.
AUG
28
GDP Q2 2026 — Second Estimate
Bureau of Economic Analysis · 8:30 AM ET
MED
Why it moves markets: The revised Q2 growth read incorporates more complete source data than the advance estimate. Large revisions — especially if Q2 flips positive or negative — can reprice September FOMC expectations.
What it means for you: A downward revision raises recession risk and makes Fed cuts more likely; an upward revision gives the committee more room to stay patient.
AUG
29
PCE Price Index — July 2026
Bureau of Economic Analysis · 8:30 AM ET
HIGH
Why it moves markets: The Fed's preferred inflation gauge lands just before the September FOMC blackout period. This print will effectively lock in or rule out a September cut.
What it means for you: The last major data point before the September 16 FOMC meeting — the number that will most directly determine whether rate relief arrives this fall.
This calendar covers key releases from July 22 through August 2026. It is updated weekly by The Macro Brief's automated dashboard agent using official government release schedules.