Fed Tracker

75 bps of cuts delivered since late 2024. Historic 4-way dissent at April meeting — Miran sought a cut; Hammack, Kashkari & Logan objected to the easing-bias language. First 4-dissent vote since October 1992. Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22, replacing Powell. May CPI (released Jun 10): 4.2% YoY — highest since April 2023 — energy prices +40.5% YoY (Iran war shock); core at 2.9% YoY. June 17, 2026 — Unanimous 12-0 hold. Warsh’s first meeting as Chair delivered a sweeping communication overhaul: statement pared to ~130 words (down from 341 in April), easing bias fully removed, and forward guidance dropped. Warsh withheld his dot (“not helpful in the conduct of policy”). Among 18 dots submitted: 9 penciled in at least one hike in 2026, 8 projected no change, and 1 saw a cut. Median year-end dot raised to 3.8% (from 3.4%); inflation forecast lifted to 3.6% headline / 3.3% core. Warsh to form task forces to overhaul major Fed operations by year-end. June CPI (released Jul 14, 2026): 3.5% YoY — down sharply from 4.2% in May, the biggest monthly price decline in six years. Core CPI: 2.6% YoY (from 2.9% in May). Monthly: headline −0.4% (vs −0.2% expected); core flat (vs +0.2% expected). Energy prices led the monthly decline. The surprise miss significantly reduced near-term hike pressure. June PPI (released Jul 15, 2026): Final demand −0.3% MoM; +5.5% YoY. Goods prices fell 1.4% MoM; services +0.2%. Core PPI (ex food, energy & trade services): +0.1% MoM — down sharply from +0.8% in May. Back-to-back CPI and PPI misses confirm a meaningful easing of pipeline inflation. June Retail Sales (released Jul 16, 2026): CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor: ninth consecutive month of growth; total retail (excl. autos & gas) +0.33% MoM, +9.41% YoY; core +0.36% MoM, +10.08% YoY. Consumer spending remains resilient despite elevated rates. July 29, 2026 — Hold 9–3. Three dissenters — Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed), and Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) — each formally preferred to raise the target range by +25 basis points. First three-dissent vote since September 2016 and the most hawkish FOMC split in nearly a decade. Statement: “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.” Warsh: “We will take necessary steps to meet our 2% inflation goal.” Non-SEP meeting; no new dot plot. Most officials now expect year-end 2026 rate of 3.6%–4.1% (up from prior 3.25–3.75% projection). Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate (released Jul 30, 2026): +1.5% annualized — down from +2.1% in Q1; growth decelerated as government spending declined and trade headwinds weighed, partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Core PCE June 2026 (released Jul 30, 2026): 3.3% YoY — eased from 3.4% in May; monthly +0.1% (vs +0.2% expected). The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge cooled modestly but remains well above the 2% target after four consecutive months at or above 3.3%. Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 1, released Aug 6): Initial 199,000 (up 1k; below 200k for 3rd straight week); 4-week avg 198,750 (cycle low); continued claims 1,801,000 (+24k). Jobs Report July (released Aug 7): −23,000 NFP — massive miss vs. +83k consensus; first payroll contraction in months. Unemployment 4.1% (from 4.2%) as labor force participation fell to 61.4% (5-yr low). Avg hourly earnings +0.1% MoM, +3.2% YoY. Government −53k; manufacturing +5k (beat); retail −19k; financial −14k. Prior months revised down −103k combined (May −66k, June −37k). CME September hike odds: ~45–48% (Aug 13, post-claims; hold leads ~52–55%; modest dovish drift from 50/50 post-CPI); October hike ~55% (Aug 11 baseline); markets repriced to 50/50 following July CPI release. CPI July 2026 (released Aug 12): 3.4% YoY — eased from 3.5% June; monthly +0.1%; core CPI +0.2% MoM / 2.5% YoY (down from 2.6% June). Shelter +0.1%; food +0.1%; new vehicles +0.1%; used cars +0.4%; medical care +0.4%; airline fares +2.2%. In line with consensus; CME repriced to ~50/50 (from ~40%/60% Aug 11). Cleveland Fed Nowcast (Aug 11, pre-release): Forecast ~3.42% YoY / core: +0.21% MoM / 2.52% YoY — actual July CPI matched closely at 3.4%/2.5%. August 2026 nowcast: headline ~3.22% YoY (continued decline); core PCE ~3.36% (slight reacceleration). Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 8, released Aug 13): Initial 209,000 (up 9k; first reading above 200k in 3 weeks after streak of sub-200k prints); 4-week avg 199,000 (unchanged at cycle low). Labor market remains historically tight despite the July NFP shock; modest dovish signal. PPI July 2026 (released Aug 13): Final demand 0.0% MoM (flat; below 0.1–0.2% expected); YoY 4.7%. Goods −0.7% (energy drag); services +0.2%; construction +2.2%; core PPI (ex food, energy & trade services): +0.4% MoM. Dovish headline; CME September hold moved to ~65–68% post-PPI. Retail Sales July 2026 (released Aug 14): −0.6% MoM (miss vs. +0.1% expected); +5.0% YoY (cooling from +6.7% June). Motor vehicles −1.8%; nonstore retailers (online) −2.2%; gas stations −0.9%; clothing +1.9%; health/personal care +0.7%. Consumer spending pulled back as tax refund boost faded; second straight dovish data surprise this week. CME September hike odds: ~32% (Aug 14 close; hold leads ~68%); October hike ~55% (pre-data baseline); Polymarket September hike: ~35% (Aug 14; converging post-data). TD Securities (Aug 14): Analyst Oscar Munoz expects Warsh to use Jackson Hole (Aug 27–29) to “reset” his communication strategy — greater clarity on the Fed’s reaction function and policy framework seen as necessary to restore market credibility; Warsh keynote Fri Aug 28. FOMC Minutes (July 29 meeting, released Aug 19, 2026): Minutes confirmed hawkish sentiment extended well beyond the three formal dissenters. Key language: “Many participants assessed higher rates would likely be necessary if inflation did not fall.” Committee expressed concern current financial conditions may not be sufficiently tight to restore price stability. Dissenters’ core arguments: supply shocks and AI-driven investment boom risk entrenching inflation above 2%; stable labor market gives room to prioritize price stability without harming employment. Post-minutes CME: September hike ~38–40% (Aug 26; hold leads ~60–62%; hawkish drift as markets price in Jackson Hole uncertainty ahead of Warsh keynote Fri Aug 28 — US News citing CME FedWatch); Polymarket “rate hike in 2026?” at ~47% YES (Aug 26; stable). Core PCE July 2026 due TOMORROW Aug 27 ~8:30am ET (prior June: 3.3% YoY; est. ~3.1–3.2%) — critical pre-Jackson Hole data print.

In plain English: This is the interest rate banks charge each other to borrow money overnight. When it goes up, borrowing becomes more expensive for everyone — mortgages, car loans, and credit cards all cost more. When it goes down, borrowing gets cheaper and savings accounts typically earn less.

Next FOMC decision: September 16, 2026 at 2:00pm ET. July 29 recap — Hold (9–3): The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting. Three regional bank presidents — Beth Hammack (Cleveland), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), and Lorie Logan (Dallas) — dissented in favor of an immediate +25bps hike. First three-dissent vote since September 2016. Warsh: “We will take necessary steps to meet our 2% inflation goal.” September is now live: CME FedWatch at ~38–40% probability of a hike at the September 15–16 meeting (Aug 26; hold leads ~60–62%; hawkish drift ahead of Warsh keynote Fri Aug 28 — US News citing CME FedWatch); Polymarket September hike odds: ~31–34% (Aug 26; slight uptick). “Rate hike in 2026?” Polymarket: ~47% YES (Aug 26; stable). “Zero cuts in 2026?” Polymarket: ~84% (Aug 5–6; stable). Goldman Sachs (Aug 17, pre-minutes): Chief economist Jan Hatzius called a September Fed rate hike “very unlikely,” arguing markets remain too hawkish; cited softer jobs data, retail sales miss, and decelerating inflation; expects no hike in 2026. Note: published before the hawkish FOMC Minutes (Aug 19), which caused a modest partial offset. TD Securities (Aug 14): Analyst Oscar Munoz argues Warsh’s communication strategy has “undermined market confidence” in the Fed’s inflation-fighting resolve and expects a “reset” at Jackson Hole, with greater clarity on the Fed’s reaction function needed to restore credibility. Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zentner: “today’s weak payrolls print may ease the pressure on the Fed to raise rates at its September meeting, but next week’s inflation data will still likely be the deciding factor.” CPI July 2026 (released Aug 12): 3.4% YoY — eased from 3.5% June; monthly +0.1%; core +0.2% MoM / 2.5% YoY (down from 2.6%). Shelter +0.1%; food +0.1%; used cars +0.4%; airline fares +2.2%. In line with consensus; CME repriced to ~50/50 (from ~40%/60% Aug 11). Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 8, released Aug 13): Initial 209,000 (up 9k; first reading above 200k in 3 weeks); 4-week avg 199,000 (unchanged at cycle low). Modest dovish signal (from 50/50 post-CPI Aug 12). PPI July 2026 (released Aug 13): 0.0% MoM (flat; below 0.1–0.2% expected); YoY 4.7%. Goods −0.7% (energy drag); core PPI +0.4% MoM. Dovish headline; CME September hold moved to ~65–68% post-PPI. Retail Sales July 2026 (released Aug 14): −0.6% MoM (miss vs. +0.1% expected); +5.0% YoY (cooling from +6.7% June). Motor vehicles −1.8%; nonstore −2.2%; clothing +1.9%. Consumer pulled back as tax refund boost faded. Post-data CME: hold leads ~68% (Aug 14 close). FOMC Minutes (July 29 meeting, released Aug 19): Hawkish — “Many participants assessed higher rates would likely be necessary if inflation did not fall.” Broader hawkish bloc beyond the 3 formal dissenters; concern that financial conditions may not be sufficiently restrictive. Post-minutes CME: September hike ~38–40% (Aug 26; hold leads ~60–62%; hawkish drift ahead of Jackson Hole). Treasury yields (Aug 24): 10-year fell to 4.71% as investors repositioned into Jackson Hole week; US Treasury buyback program to at least double to $32B+/quarter starting September (bond market stabilization). Next key catalysts: Core PCE July 2026 (BEA, TOMORROW Aug 27 ~8:30am ET — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; prior June: 3.3% YoY; est. ~3.1–3.2%); Jackson Hole Aug 27–29 opens TOMORROW (Warsh keynote Fri Aug 28 ~10am ET — last major Fed communication before Sep 16 FOMC); August CPI est. Sep 10. Cleveland Fed Nowcast (Aug 11, pre-release): Forecast ~3.42% YoY / core: +0.21% MoM / 2.52% YoY — actual July CPI matched closely at 3.4%/2.5%. August 2026 nowcast: headline ~3.22% YoY; core PCE ~3.36% (slight reacceleration). Jackson Hole Economic Symposium: August 27–29, 2026 — Chair Warsh’s remarks at the annual Kansas City Fed retreat will be closely watched as the last major Fed communication event before the September 16 decision. Bank of America fund manager survey (Aug 21): 69% of fund managers expect Warsh to strike a neutral tone — neither hawkish nor dovish. Markets may be most affected by surprises. Warsh’s track record since May — shortened statements, evasive press conferences, and explicit independence from market pricing — argues against near-term policy hints (investinglive.com: “Jackson Hole hype outruns Warsh playbook of saying as little as possible”). Speech lands 19 days before the September 16 FOMC decision; August jobs report and August CPI still land between Jackson Hole and the meeting. Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate (released Jul 30, 2026): Real GDP grew at +1.5% annualized — down from +2.1% in Q1; government spending declined and trade headwinds weighed, partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Core PCE June 2026 (released Jul 30, 2026): 3.3% YoY — eased from 3.4% in May; monthly +0.1% (vs +0.2% expected). Slightly cooler than expected but still well above the 2% target. Iran update (Aug 3): Ceasefire ended Jul 31; conflict ongoing; Brent crude ~$88/bbl, keeping energy-related inflation pressure elevated ahead of September. ISM Manufacturing PMI July 2026 (released Aug 3): 55.6 — beat 54.0 consensus; highest since May 2022 (prior: 53.3). Prices Paid: 71.1 (eased from 73.0 — third straight monthly decline, 5-month low; still above 70 for sixth straight month). Employment broke into expansion for first time in 33 months. Strong activity beat broadly supports hawkish stance, but easing Prices Paid drove some CME repricing. ISM Services PMI July 2026 (released Aug 5): 54.1 — slight miss vs. 54.5 expected (prior June: 54.0); 25th consecutive expansion month. Prices Paid reversed higher +2.6pts, back above 70 for the 4th time in 5 months (hawkish); Employment dropped back into contraction (12 of last 18 months below 50); Business Activity surged +3.7pts; New Orders accelerated to 57.2. Mixed: strong activity/orders but employment weakness drove mild dovish repricing. Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 1, released Aug 6): Initial 199,000 (up 1k; below 200k for 3rd straight week); 4-week avg 198,750 (lowest this cycle); continued claims 1,801,000 (+24k; those who lose jobs taking longer to find new ones). Jobs Report July (released Aug 7): −23,000 NFP — massive miss vs. +83k consensus; first payroll contraction in months. Unemployment fell to 4.1% (from 4.2%) but only because labor force participation dropped to 61.4% (5-yr low), not job creation. Avg hourly earnings +0.1% MoM, +3.2% YoY (wages cooling). Government −53k; manufacturing +5k (beat +4k est.); retail −19k; financial −14k. Prior months revised down combined −103k (May −66k, June −37k). Triggered sharp CME repricing: September hike fell to ~44% (further to ~40% Aug 8, hold ~60%); October hike ~55% (Aug 8). Warsh Congressional Testimony (Jul 14 House / Jul 15 Senate — completed): Senate Banking Committee (Jul 15): “We are committed to the 2% inflation goal” and “The members of our committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.” Tone resolute. Vice Chair Jefferson speech (Jul 16): Policy “sufficiently restrictive” but hike possible if inflation stays sticky; cited energy shock and AI as key forces. FOMC minutes (Jul 8): Committee revealed as split 9-to-8 on a 2026 hike; inflation forecasts revised sharply higher. BofA calls for 75bps of hikes in 2026. Supreme Court ruling (Jun 29): 5–4, Trump cannot fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. June BLS jobs report (Jul 2): only 57,000 payrolls added — badly missed 115k consensus; unemployment 4.2%; participation 61.5% (lowest since Mar 2021). Core PCE May 2026 (Jun 25): 3.4% YoY. Meetings follow October 27–28 and December 8–9, 2026.

In plain English: Eight times a year, the Federal Reserve’s committee meets to decide whether to raise, lower, or hold interest rates. Their decision ripples through the entire economy within weeks.

June 17 meeting confirmed hawkish pivot: easing bias removed, forward guidance dropped, statement cut to ~130 words. Dot plot (18 dots; Warsh withheld his): 9 see at least one hike in 2026, 8 no change, 1 cut. Median year-end 2026 projection at 3.8% — implying one 25bps hike likely in H2. July 29 hold (9–3): Three dissenters wanted +25bps hike immediately; most hawkish vote since Sep 2016. Most officials now project year-end 2026 rate of 3.6–4.1%. June CPI (Jul 14): 3.5% YoY; core 2.6% — biggest monthly price decline in six years; energy-led. June PPI (Jul 15): −0.3% MoM; +5.5% YoY; core PPI +0.1% (down from +0.8% May). Back-to-back CPI/PPI misses eased near-term pipeline inflation. May CPI: 4.2% YoY; energy +40.5% YoY (Iran war shock); core 2.9%. Core PCE (May, Jun 25): 3.4% YoY. Q2 GDP (Jul 30): +1.5% annualized — down from +2.1% Q1. Next cut odds near zero; CPI July 2026 (Aug 12): 3.4% YoY / core 2.5% YoY — eased from 3.5%/2.6% June; in line with consensus. September hike ~38–40% probability (CME FedWatch, Aug 26; hold leads ~60–62%; hawkish drift ahead of Jackson Hole); October hike ~55% (Aug 11 baseline); Polymarket September: ~31–34% (Aug 26; slight uptick).Core PCE June 2026 (Jul 30): 3.3% YoY (down from 3.4% May); monthly +0.1% vs +0.2% expected — slight cooling but still elevated. Iran ceasefire ended Jul 31; US-Iran negotiations at impasse; Brent crude near $90/bbl (supply uncertainty persists). “Zero cuts in 2026?” Polymarket: ~84% (Aug 5–6; eased from ~89%). ISM Manufacturing PMI July 2026 (Aug 3 result): 55.6 (vs 54.0 consensus; highest since May 2022). Prices Paid: 71.1 (eased from 73.0; 5-month low; still above 70 for 6th straight month). Employment in expansion for first time in 33 months. ISM Services PMI July 2026 (released Aug 5): 54.1 — slight miss vs. 54.5 expected (prior 54.0); Prices Paid reversed above 70 (hawkish); Employment dropped into contraction; Business Activity and New Orders both accelerated. Mixed signals drove further mild dovish repricing. Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 1, released Aug 6): Initial 199,000; 4-week avg 198,750 (lowest this cycle); continued claims 1,801,000 (+24k). Jobs Report July (released Aug 7): −23,000 NFP — massive miss vs. +83k consensus; first payroll contraction in months. Unemployment 4.1%; LFP 61.4% (5-yr low). Wages +0.1% MoM, +3.2% YoY. Gov’t −53k; manufacturing +5k; retail −19k; prior months revised −103k combined. Triggered CME repricing to ~44% September hike (further to ~40% Aug 9; hold leads ~60%; Kalshi ~65% hold). Jackson Hole: Aug 27–29 — Warsh to speak; key Fed communication event before Sep 16 decision. CPI July 2026 (released Aug 12): 3.4% YoY — eased from 3.5% June; monthly +0.1%; core +0.2% MoM / 2.5% YoY (down from 2.6%). Shelter +0.1%; food +0.1%; used cars +0.4%; airline fares +2.2%. In line with consensus; CME repriced to ~50/50 (from ~40%/60% Aug 11). Cleveland Fed Nowcast (Aug 11, pre-release): Forecast ~3.42% YoY / core: +0.21% MoM / 2.52% YoY — actual matched closely at 3.4%/2.5%. August 2026 nowcast: headline ~3.22% YoY; core PCE ~3.36% (slight reacceleration — potential red flag ahead of Sep 16 FOMC). Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 8, released Aug 13): Initial 209,000 (up 9k; first above 200k in 3 weeks); 4-week avg 199,000 (unchanged at cycle low); modest dovish drift. PPI July 2026 (released Aug 13): 0.0% MoM (flat; below 0.1–0.2% expected); YoY 4.7%. Goods −0.7%; core PPI +0.4%. Dovish headline; CME hold moved to ~65–68% post-PPI. Retail Sales July 2026 (released Aug 14): −0.6% MoM (miss vs. +0.1% expected); +5.0% YoY (cooling from +6.7% June). Motor vehicles −1.8%; nonstore −2.2%; clothing +1.9%. Second straight dovish data surprise; CME September hold leads ~68% (Aug 14 close). TD Securities (Aug 14): Expects Warsh to use Jackson Hole to reset communication — greater clarity on the Fed’s reaction function to restore credibility. FOMC Minutes (July 29 meeting, released Aug 19, 2026): Hawkish — “Many participants assessed higher rates would likely be necessary if inflation did not fall.” Hawkish sentiment extended well beyond the 3 formal dissenters; broader committee concern that financial conditions may not be sufficiently restrictive. Dissenters argued supply shocks and AI investment boom risk entrenching inflation above 2%; stable labor market gives room to prioritize price stability. Post-minutes CME: September hike ~38–40% (Aug 26; hold leads ~60–62%; hawkish drift ahead of Jackson Hole).

In plain English: The Fed is keeping rates high to fight inflation, but not raising them further. Think of it as pressing the brake pedal without pressing it harder.