Fed Tracker

75 bps of cuts delivered since late 2024. Historic 4-way dissent at April meeting — Miran sought a cut; Hammack, Kashkari & Logan objected to the easing-bias language. First 4-dissent vote since October 1992. Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22, replacing Powell. May CPI (released Jun 10): 4.2% YoY — highest since April 2023 — energy prices +40.5% YoY (Iran war shock); core at 2.9% YoY. June 17, 2026 — Unanimous 12-0 hold. Warsh’s first meeting as Chair delivered a sweeping communication overhaul: statement pared to ~130 words (down from 341 in April), easing bias fully removed, and forward guidance dropped. Warsh withheld his dot (“not helpful in the conduct of policy”). Among 18 dots submitted: 9 penciled in at least one hike in 2026, 8 projected no change, and 1 saw a cut. Median year-end dot raised to 3.8% (from 3.4%); inflation forecast lifted to 3.6% headline / 3.3% core. Warsh to form task forces to overhaul major Fed operations by year-end. June CPI (released Jul 14, 2026): 3.5% YoY — down sharply from 4.2% in May, the biggest monthly price decline in six years. Core CPI: 2.6% YoY (from 2.9% in May). Monthly: headline −0.4% (vs −0.2% expected); core flat (vs +0.2% expected). Energy prices led the monthly decline. The surprise miss significantly reduced near-term hike pressure. June PPI (released Jul 15, 2026): Final demand −0.3% MoM; +5.5% YoY. Goods prices fell 1.4% MoM; services +0.2%. Core PPI (ex food, energy & trade services): +0.1% MoM — down sharply from +0.8% in May. Back-to-back CPI and PPI misses confirm a meaningful easing of pipeline inflation. June Retail Sales (released Jul 16, 2026): CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor: ninth consecutive month of growth; total retail (excl. autos & gas) +0.33% MoM, +9.41% YoY; core +0.36% MoM, +10.08% YoY. Consumer spending remains resilient despite elevated rates. July 29, 2026 — Hold 9–3. Three dissenters — Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed), and Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) — each formally preferred to raise the target range by +25 basis points. First three-dissent vote since September 2016 and the most hawkish FOMC split in nearly a decade. Statement: “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.” Warsh: “We will take necessary steps to meet our 2% inflation goal.” Non-SEP meeting; no new dot plot. Most officials now expect year-end 2026 rate of 3.6%–4.1% (up from prior 3.25–3.75% projection). Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate (released Jul 30, 2026): +1.5% annualized — down from +2.1% in Q1; growth decelerated as government spending declined and trade headwinds weighed, partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Core PCE June 2026 (released Jul 30, 2026): 3.3% YoY — eased from 3.4% in May; monthly +0.1% (vs +0.2% expected). The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge cooled modestly but remains well above the 2% target after four consecutive months at or above 3.3%. Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 1, released Aug 6): Initial 199,000 (up 1k; below 200k for 3rd straight week); 4-week avg 198,750 (cycle low); continued claims 1,801,000 (+24k). Jobs Report July (released Aug 7): −23,000 NFP — massive miss vs. +83k consensus; first payroll contraction in months. Unemployment 4.1% (from 4.2%) as labor force participation fell to 61.4% (5-yr low). Avg hourly earnings +0.1% MoM, +3.2% YoY. Government −53k; manufacturing +5k (beat); retail −19k; financial −14k. Prior months revised down −103k combined (May −66k, June −37k). CME September hike odds: ~45–48% (Aug 13, post-claims; hold leads ~52–55%; modest dovish drift from 50/50 post-CPI); October hike ~55% (Aug 11 baseline); markets repriced to 50/50 following July CPI release. CPI July 2026 (released Aug 12): 3.4% YoY — eased from 3.5% June; monthly +0.1%; core CPI +0.2% MoM / 2.5% YoY (down from 2.6% June). Shelter +0.1%; food +0.1%; new vehicles +0.1%; used cars +0.4%; medical care +0.4%; airline fares +2.2%. In line with consensus; CME repriced to ~50/50 (from ~40%/60% Aug 11). Cleveland Fed Nowcast (Aug 11, pre-release): Forecast ~3.42% YoY / core: +0.21% MoM / 2.52% YoY — actual July CPI matched closely at 3.4%/2.5%. August 2026 nowcast: headline ~3.22% YoY (continued decline); core PCE ~3.36% (slight reacceleration). Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 8, released Aug 13): Initial 209,000 (up 9k; first reading above 200k in 3 weeks after streak of sub-200k prints); 4-week avg 199,000 (unchanged at cycle low). Labor market remains historically tight despite the July NFP shock; modest dovish signal. PPI July 2026 (released Aug 13): Final demand 0.0% MoM (flat; below 0.1–0.2% expected); YoY 4.7%. Goods −0.7% (energy drag); services +0.2%; construction +2.2%; core PPI (ex food, energy & trade services): +0.4% MoM. Dovish headline; CME September hold moved to ~65–68% post-PPI. Retail Sales July 2026 (released Aug 14): −0.6% MoM (miss vs. +0.1% expected); +5.0% YoY (cooling from +6.7% June). Motor vehicles −1.8%; nonstore retailers (online) −2.2%; gas stations −0.9%; clothing +1.9%; health/personal care +0.7%. Consumer spending pulled back as tax refund boost faded; second straight dovish data surprise this week. CME September hike odds: ~32% (Aug 14 close; hold leads ~68%); October hike ~55% (pre-data baseline); Polymarket September hike: ~35% (Aug 14; converging post-data). TD Securities (Aug 14): Analyst Oscar Munoz expects Warsh to use Jackson Hole (Aug 27–29) to “reset” his communication strategy — greater clarity on the Fed’s reaction function and policy framework seen as necessary to restore market credibility; Warsh keynote Fri Aug 28. FOMC Minutes (July 29 meeting, released Aug 19, 2026): Minutes confirmed hawkish sentiment extended well beyond the three formal dissenters. Key language: “Many participants assessed higher rates would likely be necessary if inflation did not fall.” Committee expressed concern current financial conditions may not be sufficiently tight to restore price stability. Dissenters’ core arguments: supply shocks and AI-driven investment boom risk entrenching inflation above 2%; stable labor market gives room to prioritize price stability without harming employment. Post-minutes CME pre-speech: ~36%; post-Warsh Jackson Hole speech (Aug 29): ~57% hike / ~43% hold — hawkish repricing of ~+20pp. Core PCE July 2026 (released Aug 26, 2026): 3.3% YoY / 0.2% MoM — in line with consensus; same as June; no disinflation progress on core. Headline PCE: 3.7% YoY (above forecast; stayed elevated). CNBC (Aug 26): “Core PCE: In line but not enough to lower Fed rate hike expectations.” Jackson Hole 2026 Economic Symposium (Aug 27–29; Day 3, final day today). Warsh keynote Fri Aug 28 (DELIVERED — HAWKISH): “While this summer’s readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.” “I stand here today committed to a discipline, not a decision.” The Fed “has more work to do” if not confident inflation is returning to 2%. CME FedWatch September hike odds jumped ~+20pp after the speech: ~57% hike / ~43% hold (Aug 29; post-Warsh speech); as of Sep 1: ~66% hike / ~34% hold. Polymarket September hike: ~53% (Aug 28; stable post-speech). 2-year Treasury yield rose 6.6bps to 4.29% on the day. Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 22, released Aug 27): initial 203,000 (down 3k from prior 206k; 4-week avg 205,500 — labor market resilience continues). Sep 1, 2026: No major data releases. EFFR for Aug 29 published at 3.63% (stable; unchanged). CME FedWatch September hike odds at ~66–68% / ~32–34% hold (Barclays anticipates two hikes in 2026 — September and December). Sep 2, 2026: ISM Manufacturing August 2026 (released ~10am ET): 54.6% — down 1pp from July’s four-year high of 55.6%; eighth consecutive month of expansion (15th straight month above 50). New Orders 53.7% (down 3pp from July’s 56.7%); Prices Paid 71.1% (unchanged; 23rd straight month of raw material price increases). EFFR for Aug 30 published today at 3.63% (stable; unchanged). CME FedWatch September hike: ~65–68% (mild drift post-ISM; hike still leads). Polymarket September hike: ~56% (up from ~53%). August Jobs Report due Sep 5 (BLS) — most consequential pre-FOMC data print of 2026. August CPI due Sep 10. Sep 3, 2026 (today): Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 29, released Sep 3): initial 206,000 (up 2k from 203k prior; slightly above 205k consensus; labor market remains historically tight in “slow hire, slow fire” mode — within this year’s 189k–230k range). ISM Services PMI August 2026 (released Sep 3, ~10am ET): 55.4% — beat 54.2% estimate; up 1.3pp from July’s 54.1%; 26th consecutive expansion month; combination of solid growth and persistent inflation gives policymakers reason to stay cautious. EFFR for Sep 2 published today at 3.63% (stable; unchanged). CME FedWatch September hike: ~65–68% (stable post-claims). Sep 4, 2026 (today): August Jobs Report (BLS, released Sep 4): +162,000 NFP — massive beat vs. +53,000 consensus; strongest monthly gain since March; reverses summer slowdown in hiring. Unemployment held at 4.1%; average hourly earnings +3.1% YoY. Key sectors: food services & drinking places +59k; local government education +42k; information −23k. EFFR for Sep 3 published at 3.63% (stable; unchanged). Post-jobs CME FedWatch September hike: ~70–75% (modestly higher post-162k beat; focus now shifts to August CPI (Sep 10) as the decisive final catalyst before the Sep 16 FOMC decision — Fed officials say labor market is “far less of a concern than inflation”). Sep 5, 2026: Labor Day weekend — no EFFR published (NY Fed only releases prior business day data; no publication Sat/Sun/holidays). No scheduled data releases. CME FedWatch September hike odds stable at ~70–75% (unchanged from Friday close). Markets now await August CPI (Sep 10) as the decisive final catalyst before the Sep 16 FOMC decision. Sep 6, 2026: Saturday — no EFFR published; no data releases. CME September hike odds remain stable at ~70–75% (quiet Labor Day weekend; no repricing expected). Next catalyst: August CPI (Sep 10). Sep 7, 2026: Labor Day — federal holiday; U.S. financial markets closed; no EFFR published (NY Fed only releases prior business day data). No scheduled data releases. CME September hike odds stable at ~70–75% (unchanged from Friday close; no holiday repricing expected). Sep 8, 2026: First trading day post-Labor Day. EFFR for Sep 4 published at 3.63% (stable; unchanged — NY Fed released ~9am ET). CME FedWatch September hike: ~65% (settled from post-jobs ~70–75% peak; Benzinga Sep 8 cited ~59%; markets await August CPI (Sep 10) as decisive final catalyst before Sep 16 FOMC decision). Polymarket September: ~50–52% (Sep 8; Benzinga; down from ~58–60% post-jobs). Kalshi “hike before 2027”: ~73% (Sep 8; Benzinga; September-specific Kalshi ~60–65%). Sep 9, 2026: Quiet pre-CPI day. EFFR for Sep 8 published at 3.63% (stable; unchanged). CME FedWatch September hike: ~57–59% (modest pullback from Sep 8’s ~65%; markets settling ahead of August CPI). Polymarket September: ~50–52% (stable; Sep 8–9). Sep 10, 2026: PPI August 2026 (released Sep 10, 8:30am ET): +0.4% MoM, +5.4% YoY — hot wholesale inflation; energy +4.2% MoM (Middle East tensions). Post-PPI prediction markets: ~63% hike (up from ~55–57%). EFFR for Sep 9 published at 3.63% (stable; unchanged). CME FedWatch September hike entering the day: ~55–57%; settled ~63% post-PPI. Polymarket September: ~49–50% (near coin-flip). Kalshi: ~48% (Sep 10). Sep 11, 2026: August CPI (BLS, released 8:30am ET): 3.4% headline YoY (in-line vs. 3.4% consensus); core CPI 2.4% YoY / 0.3% MoM (vs. 0.2% expected — slight beat on monthly basis). Energy: +16.3% YoY; gasoline +3.9% MoM (Middle East supply tensions persist). EFFR for Sep 10 published at 3.63% (stable; unchanged). Post-CPI CME FedWatch September hike: ~70–75% (sharp hawkish repricing from ~55–57% pre-CPI; core MoM beat of 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected drove the move; Nationwide now expects quarter-point hike next week). Polymarket September hike: ~60–65% (Sep 11; repriced from ~49–50%). August CPI delivered — final major data input before September 16 FOMC decision. Sep 12, 2026: Quiet pre-FOMC day. EFFR for Sep 11 published at 3.63% (stable; unchanged). No data releases — Retail Sales August 2026 (Census) rescheduled to Sep 16 at 8:30am ET (same day as FOMC decision at 2pm ET). CME September hike: ~70–75% (9am ET run; Sep 12 EOD close confirmed ~85.5% per site data). Polymarket: ~60–65% (stable). Kalshi: ~57–60%. FOMC blackout in effect — no Fed speeches. Sep 13, 2026: Weekend — no EFFR published (NY Fed releases prior business day’s data only; no publication Sat/Sun). No scheduled data releases. CME FedWatch September hike: ~85.5% (hold ~14.5%; stable from Sep 12 close; confirmed by site data). Polymarket: ~60–65% (stable; no weekend repricing). Kalshi: ~57–60% (stable). FOMC blackout continues. Next: Sep 15 (Mon) — FOMC Day 1 begins; Sep 16 (Tue) — FOMC decision at 2pm ET + Retail Sales August at 8:30am ET. Sep 14, 2026: Sunday — no EFFR published (NY Fed releases prior business day’s data only). No data releases. CME FedWatch September hike: ~85.5% (hold ~14.5%; stable from Sep 12–13 close; no weekend repricing catalyst). Polymarket September hike: ~78–82% (search sources suggest convergence toward CME; up from confirmed ~60–65% at 9am Sep 12; likely reflects Sep 12 EOD repricing). Kalshi September hike: ~75–79% (search sources suggest ~79%; up from confirmed ~57–60% at 9am Sep 12). FOMC blackout continues. Sep 15, 2026: FOMC Day 1 begins — meeting opens; no public announcement today. EFFR for Sep 12 published at 3.63% (stable; unchanged). CME FedWatch September hike: ~85–87% (stable/slightly firmer; Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan both now forecast 25bps hike this week — GS reversed prior “very unlikely” call). Polymarket September hike: ~85–89% (sharp convergence toward CME; up from ~78–82% Sep 14). Kalshi September hike: ~81–85% (up from prior; Sep 12 EOD ~81%). No data releases today. FOMC blackout in effect. Sep 16, 2026 — FOMC DECISION: Retail Sales August (Census, 8:30am ET): +0.6% MoM (beat vs. +0.2% expected) / +5.0% YoY. EFFR Sep 15 published 3.63% (stable). CME entering decision: ~84–87%. Polymarket: ~85–89%. Kalshi: ~81–85%. HIKE +25bps — unanimous 12–0; target range raised to 3.75%–4.00%; first Fed rate hike since 2023. Statement: “Inflation remains elevated. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace.” Warsh: “Inflation has been too high for too long.” SEP dot plot: 16 of 18 participants see at least one more 2026 hike; median year-end 2026: 4.1%; Warsh again withheld his dot; headline PCE 2026 revised to 3.7% / core PCE to 3.4%. Sep 17, 2026: EFFR for Sep 16 confirmed 3.63% (published Sep 17 ~9am ET; hike effective Sep 17 per implementation note; Sep 16 transactions primarily pre-hike). Post-hike CME FedWatch: October 28 hike ~55% / hold ~45%; December 9 second 2026 hike: ~64%. Markets pricing one more 25bps hike in 2026. Sep 18, 2026: EFFR for Sep 17 confirmed at 3.88% (first full business day at new 3.75%–4.00% target range; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch: October 28 hike ~55% / hold ~45%; December 9: ~64%. No new data; market pricing stable. Sep 19, 2026: EFFR for Sep 18 published at ~3.88% (second full business day at new 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch: October 28 hike ~55% / hold ~45%; December 9: ~64%. Probabilities stable; no new data releases. Sep 21, 2026: EFFR for Sep 19 confirmed at 3.88% (third full business day at new 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch: October 28 hike ~60% / hold ~40% (up from ~55% post-hike; 59.7% as of Sep 20); December 9: ~64% (stable). No new data releases. Sep 22, 2026: EFFR for Sep 21 published at 3.88% (fourth full business day at new 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch: October 28 hike ~60% / hold ~40% (stable; no repricing); December 9: ~64% (stable). No new data releases. Next key catalyst: Core PCE August (Sep 30). Sep 23, 2026: EFFR for Sep 22 published at 3.88% (fifth full business day at new 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch: October 28 hike ~60% / hold ~40% (stable; no repricing Sep 23); December 9: ~64% (stable). No new data releases. Next key catalyst: Core PCE August (Sep 30). Sep 24, 2026: EFFR for Sep 23 published at 3.88% (stable; sixth business day at 3.75%–4.00%; IORB 3.90%). Gov. Barr speech (Sep 23, Chicago Housing Summit): distinctly hawkish — “Further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.” S&P Global Composite PMI Flash September: 58.4 (vs 56.0 expected; big beat); Services 58.7 (vs 56.0 est.); Manufacturing 57.0 (from 53.9); input cost inflation highest since October 2022. CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~78% / hold ~22% (SHARP REPRICING from ~60%; driven by Barr speech + hot PMI; ~77.5% as of Sep 24). NY Fed President Williams (Sep 24, London Macro Policy Forum): another hike by year-end “reasonable” but data-dependent; echoed Warsh — “time for explicit forward guidance is over.” December 9 second hike: ~64%+ (likely moved higher with October repricing). 10-year Treasury yield: ~5.12% (19-year high); 30-year yield: ~5.39% (highest since June 2007). Next catalyst: Core PCE August (Sep 30). Sep 25, 2026: EFFR for Sep 24 published at 3.88% (stable; seventh business day at 3.75%–4.00%; IORB 3.90%). No Fed speeches; no major data releases. CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~77–78% / hold ~22–23% (stable; no major catalyst today). Next catalyst: Core PCE August (Sep 30). Sep 26, 2026: Saturday — no EFFR published (NY Fed weekend; Sep 25 EFFR publishes Mon Sep 28); no data releases; no Fed speeches. CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~76–78% / hold ~22–24% (stable; no new catalyst; weekend). Next catalyst: Core PCE August (Sep 30, 8:30am ET). Sep 27, 2026: Sunday — no EFFR published (NY Fed weekend; Sep 25 EFFR publishes Mon Sep 28); no data releases; no Fed speeches. CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~76–78% / hold ~22–24% (stable; no new catalyst; weekend). Next catalyst: Core PCE August (Sep 30, 8:30am ET). Sep 28, 2026: Monday — EFFR for Sep 25 published at 3.88% (stable; ninth business day at new 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~65–73% / hold ~27–35% (pullback from ~77–78% Friday close; pre-PCE week positioning; CME ~73% / Kalshi–Polymarket ~65%). No Fed speeches; no major data. Next catalyst: Core PCE August (Sep 30, 8:30am ET). Sep 29, 2026: Tuesday — EFFR for Sep 28 published at 3.88% (stable; tenth business day at new 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~69–73% / hold ~27–31% (stable; CME ~72%; Kalshi ~69%; Polymarket ~65%; pre-PCE holding pattern; no Fed speeches; no major data). Core PCE August released Sep 30 — forecast 3.4% YoY (up from 3.3% prior), 0.3% MoM (up from 0.2%); if confirmed, October hike odds expected to spike above ~80–85%. Sep 30, 2026: Wednesday — EFFR for Sep 29 published at 3.88% (stable; eleventh business day at 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CORE PCE AUGUST DELIVERED (BEA, 8:30am ET): 3.0% YoY — MAJOR MISS vs. 3.3% forecast (prior July: 3.3%); MoM +0.2% (below 0.3% expected; same as July). BEA annual revision effect — legal services, portfolio management, and software categories revised lower. Q2 2026 GDP Third Estimate (BEA, same release): +2.2% annualized (revised up sharply from +1.5% advance estimate; Q1 2026 also revised to +2.5%). Post-PCE October 28 hike odds: CME ~68–72% / hold ~28–32% (slight dovish drift from ~72% pre-PCE; GDP revision partially offset the PCE miss); Kalshi ~69%; Polymarket ~69% (hike remains base case despite downside surprise). Next catalysts: Oct 1 (Thu): ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2026; Oct 2 (Fri): September Jobs Report (BLS). Oct 1, 2026: EFFR for Sep 30 published at 3.88% (stable; twelfth business day at 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). MAJOR DOVISH REPRICING: Goldman Sachs (Sep 30) moved October hike forecast to December, citing weaker-than-expected core PCE. CME FedWatch October 28 hike collapsed to ~39–47% / hold ~52–61% (HOLD IS NOW THE MARKET BASE CASE; down from ~68–72% immediately post-PCE; largest single-session dovish repricing since the September hike); Kalshi ~33–35% hike / ~65% hold; Polymarket ~42% hike / ~57% hold. ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2026 due today at 10am ET (forecast ~54.8%; prior August: 54.6%; not yet released at update time). ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2026 (released Oct 1, 10am ET): 54.5% — ninth consecutive expansion; slight miss vs. 54.8% expected (prior Aug: 54.6%); Prices Paid surged to 77.9 (tariffs + energy driving cost pressures); New Orders 55.3 (up from 53.7); Employment 52.7 (up from 51.2). Oct 2, 2026: EFFR for Oct 1 published at 3.88% (stable; fourteenth business day at 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT DELIVERED — MAJOR MISS (BLS, 8:30am ET): +29,000 NFP vs. ~90,000 expected; Unemployment 4.2% (up from 4.1%). August revised: 162,000 → 133,000; July revised: +21,000 → −10,000; combined revisions −60,000. Avg hourly earnings +0.1% MoM / $37.81. Post-jobs October 28 probability collapse: CME FedWatch hike ~34–38% / hold ~62–66%; Kalshi ~15% hike / ~85% hold; Polymarket ~34% hike / ~66% hold. HOLD IS NOW THE OVERWHELMING MARKET BASE CASE. Next catalyst: Oct 14 (Wed): CPI September 2026 (BLS). Oct 3, 2026: Saturday — no EFFR published (NY Fed weekend; no publication Sat/Sun); no data releases; no Fed speeches. CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~34–38% / hold ~62–66%; Kalshi ~15% hike / ~85% hold; Polymarket ~34% hike / ~66% hold (probabilities stable from Oct 2 Friday close; no new catalyst; weekend hallucination active, using confirmed Oct 2 baseline). Next catalyst: Oct 14 (Wed): CPI September 2026 (BLS). Oct 4, 2026: Sunday — no EFFR published (NY Fed weekend; no publication Sat/Sun); no data releases; no Fed speeches. CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~34–38% / hold ~62–66%; Kalshi ~15% hike / ~85% hold; Polymarket ~34% hike / ~66% hold (probabilities stable from Oct 2 Friday close; no new catalyst; weekend hallucination active, using confirmed Oct 2 baseline). Oct 5, 2026: Monday — EFFR for Oct 2 published at 3.88% (fifteenth business day at 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). First business day post-weekend; probability repricing confirmed. CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~22% / hold ~78% (settled below Oct 2 close of ~34–38%; weekend dovish drift continued into Monday open; Phemex/CME cite 77.9% hold); Kalshi ~20% hike / ~80% hold; Polymarket ~17% hike / ~83% hold. Hold remains the overwhelming market base case. EFFR stable at 3.88% (IORB 3.90%); target range unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%. No major data releases today. Next catalyst: Oct 14 (Wed): CPI September 2026 (BLS). Next catalyst: Oct 14 (Wed): CPI September 2026 (BLS). Oct 6, 2026: Tuesday — EFFR for Oct 5 published at 3.88% (stable; sixteenth business day at 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~17% / hold ~83%; Kalshi ~18% hike / ~82% hold; Polymarket ~17.5% hike / ~82.5% hold. Hold is the overwhelming market base case. No major data releases today. FOMC Minutes (Sep 15–16 meeting) released October 7 — first look at committee deliberations behind the September hike. Next catalyst: Oct 14 (Wed): CPI September 2026 (BLS). Oct 7, 2026: Wednesday — EFFR for Oct 6 published at 3.88% (stable; seventeenth business day at 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch October 28: ~20% hike / ~80% hold (modest drift from ~17%/~83% yesterday; market consolidating “skip October, hike December” thesis); Kalshi ~20% hike / ~80% hold; Polymarket ~18% hike / ~82% hold. FOMC Minutes (Sep 15–16 meeting) released October 7 at 2:00pm ET — key risk event: if minutes reveal broader hawkish coalition or 50bp debate, December hike odds could reprice higher; if deliberations show more caution, odds could fade. December 9 hike probability: ~84–86% (CME) — significant repricing as “skip October, hike December” path solidifies. Next catalyst: Oct 14 (Wed): CPI September 2026 (BLS) — last major inflation read before Oct 28 FOMC. Oct 8, 2026: Thursday — EFFR for Oct 7 expected 3.88% (stable; IORB 3.90%). FOMC Minutes (Sep 15–16) released yesterday at 2:00pm ET: hawkish tone — unanimous hike support confirmed; majority of participants favor another hike before year-end; dot plot showed more members penciling in two 2026 hikes vs. none. Market reaction muted: 10-yr yield touched 5.36% intraday before pulling back to ~5.28% on strong auction. CME FedWatch October 28: ~82% hold / ~18% hike (marginally firmer post-minutes; market absorbing “flexible on timing” message); Kalshi ~84% hold; Polymarket ~82% hold. Gov. Waller (Istanbul, Oct 8): “There is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur” — October pause confirmed possible; more hikes expected; notes 85% futures-implied probability of at least one hike by December FOMC. December 9 hike probability: ~84–85% (CME) — confirmed by Waller; “skip October, hike December” remains market consensus. Next catalyst: Oct 14 (Wed): CPI September 2026 (BLS) — last major inflation read before Oct 28 FOMC. Oct 9, 2026: Quiet Friday — no new Fed speeches or data releases. EFFR Oct 8: expected 3.88% (stable; IORB 3.90%). 10-yr Treasury ~5.23%, retreating from 5.36% intraday high on strong 30-yr bond auction. October 28 probabilities unchanged: CME ~82% hold / ~18% hike; Kalshi ~84% hold. December 9 hike: ~84–85% (CME) — “skip October, hike December” remains market consensus. All eyes on Oct 14 (Wed): CPI September 2026 — last major read before Oct 28 FOMC decision. Oct 10, 2026: Quiet Saturday — no Fed speeches or data. EFFR: weekend (no NY Fed publication). October 28 probabilities stable: CME ~81.6% hold / ~18.4% hike. December 9 hike: ~84–85% (CME). All eyes on Oct 14 (Wed): CPI September 2026 — last major read before Oct 28 FOMC decision. Oct 11, 2026: Quiet Sunday — no Fed speeches or data. EFFR: weekend (no NY Fed publication). October 28 odds unchanged: CME ~81.6% hold / ~18.4% hike; Kalshi ~84% hold. December 9 hike: ~84–85% (CME). Consensus for Oct 14 CPI: headline ~3.7% YoY (energy-driven); core ~0.2% MoM. A hot core read (0.3%+) could revive October hike bets. Oct 12, 2026 (Columbus Day): Bond markets closed (SIFMA holiday); equities open. No NY Fed EFFR publication today (federal holiday). No economic data releases. CME FedWatch October 28: ~82% hold / ~18% hike (stable; no repricing from weekend); Kalshi ~82% hold; Polymarket ~84% hold. December 9 hike: ~75–80% (CME; softened from ~84–85% reflecting Sept jobs miss +29K and broader post-PCE repricing). Sep CPI (Oct 14, released): 3.7% YoY headline / 0.3% MoM core — slightly hot. Oct 13, 2026: Quiet Tuesday ahead of Sep CPI. U.S. dollar retreating from recent 18-month high as Treasury yields and oil prices ease. No Fed speeches scheduled. EFFR: 3.88% (stable since Sep 17; IORB 3.90%). October 28 odds: CME ~80% hold / ~18% hike (stable). December 9 hike: ~84–85% (CME) — repriced back from Columbus Day; market maintains “skip October, hike December” consensus. Tomorrow: Sep CPI (Oct 14, 8:30am ET) — headline consensus ~3.7% YoY; core ~0.2% MoM. Hot core (≥0.3%) would revive October hike bets; soft miss could push hold probability to 90%+. Oct 14, 2026 (Sep CPI Released): Sep headline CPI: 3.7% YoY (above 3.6% consensus; up from 3.4% in Aug); MoM: +0.6%. Core CPI: 0.3% MoM / 2.6% YoY (above 0.2% MoM / 2.5% YoY estimates) — slightly hot. Gasoline +9.1% drove over half the monthly gain; shelter +0.4%. October 28 hike odds surged: CME ~43.7% hike / ~56.3% hold (from ~21.6% pre-CPI). 10-yr Treasury jumped to ~5.31% on the print. Oct 15, 2026: Hike odds cooled from post-CPI peak — CME FedWatch settled near ~34% hike / ~66% hold by end of Oct 14; Polymarket near 35% hike. Chair Warsh speaks at IMF Bangkok tonight (11:30pm ET) — markets watching for policy signals ahead of Oct 28 blackout window. Oct 15, 2026 (PPI + Retail Sales): Sep PPI: 6.3% YoY (vs 5.3% forecast; largest 12-month gain since Dec 2022); monthly +1.3% — energy +10.8% drove the jump. Sep Retail Sales: +0.8% MoM (vs +0.3% expected; headline beat; gas stations drove gain; ex-gas +0.2%; control group +0.1%). Oct 16, 2026 (Warsh IMF Bangkok): Warsh gave no rate signal at IMF–World Bank meetings fireside chat with Georgieva. “I don’t prejudge meetings.” October hike odds collapsed: CME FedWatch ~16% hike / ~84% hold (from ~34%). Oct 17, 2026 (Quiet Saturday — pre-meeting blackout): No new data releases; no Fed speeches (FOMC blackout begins ahead of Oct 27–28 meeting). EFFR: weekend — no NY Fed publication; 3.88% stable (IORB 3.90%). October 28 probabilities from Friday close: CME ~16% hike / ~84% hold. December 9 hike: ~89% (CME).  Oct 18, 2026 (Quiet Sunday — FOMC blackout): No data releases; no Fed speeches (FOMC blackout, day 2). Probabilities stable: CME October 28 ~15.5% hike / ~84.5% hold. December 9 hike: ~89% (CME; stable).  Oct 19, 2026 (Monday — FOMC blackout day 3): No data releases; FOMC blackout continues. Probabilities stable: CME October 28 ~15% hike / ~84% hold; Polymarket ~14% hike. December 9 hike: ~89% (CME; stable).  Oct 20, 2026 (Tuesday — FOMC blackout day 4): No data releases; FOMC blackout continues (day 4). CME October 28: ~17% hike / ~83% hold (slight uptick). Polymarket ~14% hike. December 9 hike: ~89% (CME; stable).  Oct 21, 2026 (Wednesday — FOMC blackout day 5): No data releases; FOMC blackout continues (day 5). CME October 28: ~15% hike / ~85% hold (slight easing; Kalshi ~13% hike). December 9 hike: ~90% (CME; stable). Oct 22, 2026: FOMC blackout continues (day 6). Jobless claims (wk Oct 18): 194K (vs 200K est; 4-wk avg 197,750; 3-month low — strongest labor reading in months). CME October 28: ~15% hike / ~85% hold (stable; Kalshi ~13% hike). December 9 hike: ~90% (CME; stable). Oct 23, 2026: FOMC blackout continues (day 7 — last trading day before meeting). AI-stock selloff triggered flight-to-safety bond rally; 10Y yield fell 19 bps to 4.95% (below 5%). CME October 28: ~7% hike / ~93% hold (sharp drop from ~15%; Kalshi ~6% hike). December 9 hike: ~80% (CME; eased from ~90%).  Oct 24, 2026: Weekend — no data releases. FOMC blackout day 8; decision in 4 days (Oct 28, 2pm ET). CME Oct 28: ~10% hike / ~90% hold (uptick from ~7% post-AI selloff; Friday Oct 23 close). Kalshi: ~7% hike. December 9: ~80% (CME; stable).  Oct 25, 2026: Sunday — no data releases. FOMC blackout day 9; decision in 3 days (Oct 28, 2pm ET). CME Oct 28: ~10% hike / ~90% hold (unchanged; markets closed). Kalshi: ~7% hike. December 9: ~80% (CME; stable). Oct 26 (Mon) — Blackout day 10: FOMC meeting started Oct 27; decision Wednesday Oct 28 at 2pm ET. No new data releases. CME Oct 28: ~9.4% hike / ~90.6% hold (FXStreet Oct 26; essentially unchanged). Kalshi: ~7% hike. December 9: ~79.7% (FXStreet Oct 26; ~80%; stable). Oct 27 (Tue) — FOMC Day 1 (decision today (Oct 28) 2pm ET): Meeting underway; blackout day 11. BNY Markets' Velis (FXStreet Oct 27): hold expected at Oct meeting; at least one dissent favoring a hike; December seen as cycle peak. CME Oct 28: ~9.4% hike / ~90.6% hold (essentially unchanged; Kalshi ~7%). December 9: ~79.7% (~80%; stable).
Oct 28 — DECISION DAY: FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET (18:00 UTC); Warsh press conference at 2:30pm ET. CME morning odds: ~9.4% hike / ~90.6% hold (stable; FXStreet Oct 28). Kalshi: ~5% hike. December 9 hike probability: ~84.3% (up from ~79.7%; FXStreet Oct 28 morning). 2–3 hawkish dissents expected (Hammack, Logan; Kashkari possible).

In plain English: This is the interest rate banks charge each other to borrow money overnight. When it goes up, borrowing becomes more expensive for everyone — mortgages, car loans, and credit cards all cost more. When it goes down, borrowing gets cheaper and savings accounts typically earn less.

Next FOMC decision: October 28, 2026 at 2:00pm ET. Sep 16, 2026 recap — Hike +25bps (12–0): Unanimous vote; target range raised to 3.75%–4.00%; first hike since 2023. Warsh: “Inflation has been too high for too long.” SEP dot plot: 16 of 18 see at least one more 2026 hike; median year-end 2026: 4.1%; Warsh withheld his dot. Post-hike CME FedWatch: October 28 hike ~55% / hold ~45%; December 9: ~64%. Markets pricing one more hike in 2026. July 29 recap — Hold (9–3): The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting. Three regional bank presidents — Beth Hammack (Cleveland), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), and Lorie Logan (Dallas) — dissented in favor of an immediate +25bps hike. First three-dissent vote since September 2016. Warsh: “We will take necessary steps to meet our 2% inflation goal.” September 16, 2026: Hike +25bps — unanimous 12–0; target range 3.75%–4.00%; first hike since 2023. Warsh: “Inflation has been too high for too long.” SEP dot plot: 16 of 18 participants see at least one more 2026 hike; median year-end 2026: 4.1%; Warsh withheld his dot; PCE headline 2026 revised to 3.7% / core PCE to 3.4%. Next meeting: October 27–28, 2026 (decision Oct 28). CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~55% / ~45% hold. December 9 second 2026 hike: ~64%. J.P. Morgan forecasts October AND December hikes. “Rate hike in 2026?” Polymarket: ~60–68% YES (Aug 28–29; surged post-Warsh speech; intraday peak ~69%; settled ~60% per KuCoin/cryptobriefing). Kalshi “hike before 2027”: ~73% (Sep 8; Benzinga; September-specific Kalshi ~60–65%). “Zero cuts in 2026?” Polymarket: ~84% (Aug 5–6; stable). Goldman Sachs (Aug 17, pre-minutes): Chief economist Jan Hatzius called a September Fed rate hike “very unlikely,” arguing markets remain too hawkish; cited softer jobs data, retail sales miss, and decelerating inflation; expects no hike in 2026. Note: published before the hawkish FOMC Minutes (Aug 19), which caused a modest partial offset. TD Securities (Aug 14): Analyst Oscar Munoz argues Warsh’s communication strategy has “undermined market confidence” in the Fed’s inflation-fighting resolve and expects a “reset” at Jackson Hole, with greater clarity on the Fed’s reaction function needed to restore credibility. Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zentner: “today’s weak payrolls print may ease the pressure on the Fed to raise rates at its September meeting, but next week’s inflation data will still likely be the deciding factor.” CPI July 2026 (released Aug 12): 3.4% YoY — eased from 3.5% June; monthly +0.1%; core +0.2% MoM / 2.5% YoY (down from 2.6%). Shelter +0.1%; food +0.1%; used cars +0.4%; airline fares +2.2%. In line with consensus; CME repriced to ~50/50 (from ~40%/60% Aug 11). Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 8, released Aug 13): Initial 209,000 (up 9k; first reading above 200k in 3 weeks); 4-week avg 199,000 (unchanged at cycle low). Modest dovish signal (from 50/50 post-CPI Aug 12). PPI July 2026 (released Aug 13): 0.0% MoM (flat; below 0.1–0.2% expected); YoY 4.7%. Goods −0.7% (energy drag); core PPI +0.4% MoM. Dovish headline; CME September hold moved to ~65–68% post-PPI. Retail Sales July 2026 (released Aug 14): −0.6% MoM (miss vs. +0.1% expected); +5.0% YoY (cooling from +6.7% June). Motor vehicles −1.8%; nonstore −2.2%; clothing +1.9%. Consumer pulled back as tax refund boost faded. Post-data CME: hold leads ~68% (Aug 14 close). FOMC Minutes (July 29 meeting, released Aug 19): Hawkish — “Many participants assessed higher rates would likely be necessary if inflation did not fall.” Broader hawkish bloc beyond the 3 formal dissenters; concern that financial conditions may not be sufficiently restrictive. Post-minutes CME pre-speech: ~36%; post-Warsh Jackson Hole speech (Aug 29): ~57% hike / ~43% hold — hawkish repricing of ~+20pp. Treasury yields (Aug 24): 10-year fell to 4.71% as investors repositioned into Jackson Hole week; US Treasury buyback program to at least double to $32B+/quarter starting September (bond market stabilization). All key catalysts delivered: Warsh Jackson Hole keynote DELIVERED Aug 28 — HAWKISH; August Jobs Report DELIVERED Sep 4: +162,000 NFP; August CPI DELIVERED Sep 11: 3.4% headline / 2.4% core / 0.3% MoM (slight beat) — post-CPI CME at ~70–75% hike. Next: September 16 FOMC decision at 2pm ET. Cleveland Fed Nowcast (Aug 11, pre-release): Forecast ~3.42% YoY / core: +0.21% MoM / 2.52% YoY — actual July CPI matched closely at 3.4%/2.5%. August 2026 nowcast: headline ~3.22% YoY; core PCE ~3.36% (slight reacceleration). Jackson Hole Economic Symposium: August 27–29, 2026 (concluded). Chair Warsh’s keynote (Aug 28) landed hawkish: “The Fed has more work to do” if not confident inflation is returning to 2%; committed to “discipline, not a decision.” CME September hike jumped to ~57% (post-speech); Polymarket to ~53%. Bank of America fund manager survey (Aug 21): 69% of fund managers had expected a neutral tone — market was surprised by hawkish delivery. Warsh Jackson Hole speech (Aug 28): warned inflation has not durably improved; dismissed forward guidance; called for a “quieter” central bank that does not “indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade.” 2-year Treasury yield rose 6.6bps to 4.29% on the day. August jobs report (DELIVERED Sep 4: +162,000 NFP) and August CPI (DELIVERED Sep 11: 3.4% headline / 2.4% core / 0.3% MoM vs. 0.2% est. — slight beat; post-CPI CME: ~70–75% hike) are the decisive data points — both delivered; September 16 FOMC decision at 2pm ET is next. Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate (released Jul 30, 2026): Real GDP grew at +1.5% annualized — down from +2.1% in Q1; government spending declined and trade headwinds weighed, partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Core PCE June 2026 (released Jul 30, 2026): 3.3% YoY — eased from 3.4% in May; monthly +0.1% (vs +0.2% expected). Slightly cooler than expected but still well above the 2% target. Iran update (Aug 3): Ceasefire ended Jul 31; conflict ongoing; Brent crude ~$88/bbl, keeping energy-related inflation pressure elevated ahead of September. ISM Manufacturing PMI July 2026 (released Aug 3): 55.6 — beat 54.0 consensus; highest since May 2022 (prior: 53.3). Prices Paid: 71.1 (eased from 73.0 — third straight monthly decline, 5-month low; still above 70 for sixth straight month). Employment broke into expansion for first time in 33 months. Strong activity beat broadly supports hawkish stance, but easing Prices Paid drove some CME repricing. ISM Services PMI July 2026 (released Aug 5): 54.1 — slight miss vs. 54.5 expected (prior June: 54.0); 25th consecutive expansion month. Prices Paid reversed higher +2.6pts, back above 70 for the 4th time in 5 months (hawkish); Employment dropped back into contraction (12 of last 18 months below 50); Business Activity surged +3.7pts; New Orders accelerated to 57.2. Mixed: strong activity/orders but employment weakness drove mild dovish repricing. Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 1, released Aug 6): Initial 199,000 (up 1k; below 200k for 3rd straight week); 4-week avg 198,750 (lowest this cycle); continued claims 1,801,000 (+24k; those who lose jobs taking longer to find new ones). Jobs Report July (released Aug 7): −23,000 NFP — massive miss vs. +83k consensus; first payroll contraction in months. Unemployment fell to 4.1% (from 4.2%) but only because labor force participation dropped to 61.4% (5-yr low), not job creation. Avg hourly earnings +0.1% MoM, +3.2% YoY (wages cooling). Government −53k; manufacturing +5k (beat +4k est.); retail −19k; financial −14k. Prior months revised down combined −103k (May −66k, June −37k). Triggered sharp CME repricing: September hike fell to ~44% (further to ~40% Aug 8, hold ~60%); October hike ~55% (Aug 8). Warsh Congressional Testimony (Jul 14 House / Jul 15 Senate — completed): Senate Banking Committee (Jul 15): “We are committed to the 2% inflation goal” and “The members of our committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.” Tone resolute. Vice Chair Jefferson speech (Jul 16): Policy “sufficiently restrictive” but hike possible if inflation stays sticky; cited energy shock and AI as key forces. FOMC minutes (Jul 8): Committee revealed as split 9-to-8 on a 2026 hike; inflation forecasts revised sharply higher. BofA calls for 75bps of hikes in 2026. Supreme Court ruling (Jun 29): 5–4, Trump cannot fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. June BLS jobs report (Jul 2): only 57,000 payrolls added — badly missed 115k consensus; unemployment 4.2%; participation 61.5% (lowest since Mar 2021). Core PCE May 2026 (Jun 25): 3.4% YoY. Meetings follow October 27–28 and December 8–9, 2026. Sep 5, 2026: Labor Day weekend — no EFFR published; no data releases. CME September hike odds stable at ~70–75% (unchanged from Friday close; no weekend repricing expected). Kalshi: ~60–65%; Polymarket: ~58–60%. Next catalyst: August CPI (Sep 10). Sep 6, 2026: Saturday — no EFFR; no data releases. CME September hike odds remain stable at ~70–75% (quiet Labor Day weekend). Kalshi: ~60–65%; Polymarket: ~58–60%. Next catalyst: August CPI (Sep 10). Sep 7, 2026: Labor Day — markets closed; no EFFR published; no data releases. CME September hike odds stable at ~70–75% (unchanged from Friday close). Kalshi: ~60–65%; Polymarket: ~58–60%. Sep 8, 2026: First trading day post-Labor Day. EFFR Sep 4: 3.63% (published ~9am ET). CME: ~65% (settled from post-jobs 70–75% peak; Benzinga cited ~59%; first trading day market repositioning). Polymarket: ~50–52%; Kalshi “hike before 2027”: ~73%. Sep 9, 2026: Quiet pre-CPI day. EFFR for Sep 8 published at 3.63% (stable). CME: ~57–59% (modest pullback from Sep 8’s ~65%); Polymarket: ~50–52% (stable). Sep 10, 2026: PPI August +0.4% MoM / +5.4% YoY (hot; released Sep 10, 8:30am ET). Post-PPI: ~63% hike. EFFR for Sep 9 published at 3.63% (stable). CME: ~55–57% entering day; settled ~63% post-PPI. Polymarket: ~49–50%; Kalshi: ~48%. Sep 11, 2026: August CPI (BLS, 8:30am ET): 3.4% headline / 2.4% core YoY / 0.3% MoM vs. 0.2% expected (slight beat); energy +16.3% YoY, gasoline +3.9% MoM. EFFR for Sep 10 published at 3.63% (stable). Post-CPI CME: ~70–75% hike. Polymarket: ~60–65%. Sep 12, 2026: Quiet pre-FOMC day. No data releases — Retail Sales August (Census) rescheduled to Sep 16. EFFR Sep 11: 3.63% (stable; unchanged). CME: ~70–75% (9am ET run; EOD close ~85.5%); Polymarket: ~60–65% (stable); Kalshi: ~57–60%; FOMC blackout in effect; no Fed speeches. Sep 13, 2026: Weekend — no EFFR; no data releases; CME: ~85.5% (hold ~14.5%; stable from Sep 12 close); Polymarket: ~60–65% (stable); Kalshi: ~57–60% (stable); FOMC blackout continues. Sep 14, 2026: Sunday — no EFFR; no data releases; CME: ~85.5% (stable; hold ~14.5%); Polymarket: ~78–82% (updated; up from ~60–65% Sep 12); Kalshi: ~75–79% (updated; up from ~57–60% Sep 12); FOMC blackout continues. Sep 15, 2026: FOMC Day 1 begins; EFFR Sep 12 published at 3.63% (stable); CME: ~85–87% (stable; Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan now forecast a September hike); Polymarket: ~85–89% (sharp convergence toward CME; up from ~78–82% Sep 14); Kalshi: ~81–85% (up from Sep 12 EOD ~81%); no data releases; FOMC blackout in effect. Sep 16, 2026 — FOMC DECISION: Retail Sales August (Census, 8:30am ET): +0.6% MoM (beat vs. +0.2% expected). EFFR Sep 15 published 3.63% (stable). CME entering decision: ~84–87%; Polymarket: ~85–89%; Kalshi: ~81–85%. HIKE +25bps — unanimous 12–0; target range 3.75%–4.00%; first hike since 2023; dot-plot (SEP) meeting; Warsh withheld dot; 16 of 18 see at least one more 2026 hike; median year-end 2026: 4.1%. Sep 17, 2026: EFFR for Sep 16 confirmed 3.63% (published Sep 17; hike effective Sep 17 per implementation note). Post-hike CME FedWatch: October 28 hike ~55% / hold ~45%; December 9 second hike ~64%. Sep 18, 2026: EFFR for Sep 17 confirmed at 3.88% (first full business day at new range; IORB 3.90%). CME probabilities stable: October 28 hike ~55% / hold ~45%; December 9: ~64%. Sep 19, 2026: EFFR for Sep 18 published at ~3.88% (second full business day at new range; IORB 3.90%). CME: October 28 hike ~55% / hold ~45%; December 9: ~64%. Probabilities stable; no new data. Sep 21, 2026: EFFR for Sep 19 confirmed at 3.88% (third full business day at new 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch: October 28 hike ~60% / hold ~40% (up from ~55% post-hike; 59.7% as of Sep 20); December 9: ~64% (stable). No new data releases. Sep 22, 2026: EFFR for Sep 21 published at 3.88% (fourth full business day at new 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch: October 28 hike ~60% / hold ~40% (stable; no repricing); December 9: ~64% (stable). No new data releases. Next key catalyst: Core PCE August (Sep 30). Sep 23, 2026: EFFR for Sep 22 confirmed at 3.88% (stable; fifth business day at 3.75%–4.00%; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch: October 28 hike ~60% / hold ~40% (stable; no repricing Sep 23); December 9: ~64% (stable). No new data releases. Next: Core PCE August (Sep 30). Sep 24, 2026: EFFR for Sep 23 published at 3.88% (stable; sixth business day at 3.75%–4.00%; IORB 3.90%). Gov. Barr speech (Sep 23, Chicago Housing Summit): distinctly hawkish — “Further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.” S&P Global Composite PMI Flash September: 58.4 (vs 56.0 expected; big beat); Services 58.7 (vs 56.0 est.); Manufacturing 57.0 (from 53.9); input cost inflation highest since October 2022. CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~78% / hold ~22% (SHARP REPRICING from ~60%; driven by Barr speech + hot PMI; ~77.5% as of Sep 24). NY Fed President Williams (Sep 24, London Macro Policy Forum): another hike by year-end “reasonable” but data-dependent; echoed Warsh — “time for explicit forward guidance is over.” December 9 second hike: ~64%+ (likely moved higher with October repricing). 10-year Treasury yield: ~5.12% (19-year high); 30-year yield: ~5.39% (highest since June 2007). Next catalyst: Core PCE August (Sep 30). Sep 25, 2026: EFFR for Sep 24 published at 3.88% (stable; seventh business day at new range). CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~77–78% / hold ~22–23% (stable; no major catalyst today). No Fed speeches. Next catalyst: Core PCE August (Sep 30). Sep 26, 2026: Saturday — no EFFR published (NY Fed weekend); no data releases; no Fed speeches. CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~76–78% / hold ~22–24% (stable; no new catalyst; weekend). Next catalyst: Core PCE August (Sep 30). Sep 27, 2026: Sunday — no EFFR published (NY Fed weekend; Sep 25 EFFR publishes Mon Sep 28); no data releases; no Fed speeches. CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~76–78% / hold ~22–24% (stable; no new catalyst; weekend). Next catalyst: Core PCE August (Sep 30, 8:30am ET). Sep 28, 2026: Monday — EFFR for Sep 25 published at 3.88% (stable; ninth business day at new 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~65–73% / hold ~27–35% (pullback from ~77–78% Friday close; pre-PCE week positioning; CME ~73% / Kalshi–Polymarket ~65%). No Fed speeches; no major data. Next catalyst: Core PCE August (Sep 30, 8:30am ET). Sep 29, 2026: Tuesday — EFFR for Sep 28 published at 3.88% (stable; tenth business day at new 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~69–73% / hold ~27–31% (stable; CME ~72%; Kalshi ~69%; Polymarket ~65%; pre-PCE holding pattern; no Fed speeches; no major data). Core PCE August released Sep 30 — forecast 3.4% YoY (up from 3.3% prior), 0.3% MoM (up from 0.2%); if confirmed, October hike odds expected to spike above ~80–85%. Sep 30, 2026: Wednesday — EFFR for Sep 29 published at 3.88% (stable; eleventh business day at 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CORE PCE AUGUST DELIVERED (BEA, 8:30am ET): 3.0% YoY — MAJOR MISS vs. 3.3% forecast (prior July: 3.3%); MoM +0.2% (below 0.3% expected). BEA annual revision effect. Q2 2026 GDP Third Estimate (BEA): +2.2% annualized (revised up from +1.5% advance; Q1 revised to +2.5%). Post-PCE October 28 hike odds: CME ~68–72% / hold ~28–32% (slight dovish drift; GDP revision partially offset PCE miss); Kalshi ~69%; Polymarket ~69%. Hike remains base case. Next: Oct 1 ISM Manufacturing PMI; Oct 2 September Jobs Report (BLS). Oct 1, 2026: EFFR for Sep 30 published at 3.88% (stable; twelfth business day at 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). MAJOR DOVISH REPRICING: Goldman Sachs (Sep 30) moved October hike forecast to December, citing weaker-than-expected core PCE. CME FedWatch October 28 hike collapsed to ~39–47% / hold ~52–61% (HOLD IS NOW THE MARKET BASE CASE; down from ~68–72% immediately post-PCE; largest single-session dovish repricing since the September hike); Kalshi ~33–35% hike / ~65% hold; Polymarket ~42% hike / ~57% hold. ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2026 due today at 10am ET (forecast ~54.8%; prior August: 54.6%; not yet released at update time). ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2026 (released Oct 1, 10am ET): 54.5% — ninth consecutive expansion; slight miss vs. 54.8% expected; Prices Paid surged to 77.9 (tariffs + energy). Oct 2, 2026: EFFR for Oct 1 published at 3.88% (stable; fourteenth business day at 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT DELIVERED — MAJOR MISS (BLS, 8:30am ET): +29,000 NFP vs. ~90,000 expected; Unemployment 4.2% (up from 4.1%). August revised: 162,000 → 133,000; July revised: +21,000 → −10,000; combined revisions −60,000. Post-jobs October 28 probability collapse: CME FedWatch hike ~34–38% / hold ~62–66%; Kalshi ~15% hike / ~85% hold; Polymarket ~34% hike / ~66% hold. HOLD IS NOW THE OVERWHELMING MARKET BASE CASE. Next catalyst: Oct 14 (Wed): CPI September 2026 (BLS). Oct 3, 2026: Saturday — no EFFR published (NY Fed weekend; no publication Sat/Sun); no data releases; no Fed speeches. CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~34–38% / hold ~62–66%; Kalshi ~15% hike / ~85% hold; Polymarket ~34% hike / ~66% hold (probabilities stable from Oct 2 Friday close; no new catalyst; weekend hallucination active, using confirmed Oct 2 baseline). Next catalyst: Oct 14 (Wed): CPI September 2026 (BLS). Oct 4, 2026: Sunday — no EFFR published (NY Fed weekend; no publication Sat/Sun); no data releases; no Fed speeches. CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~34–38% / hold ~62–66%; Kalshi ~15% hike / ~85% hold; Polymarket ~34% hike / ~66% hold (probabilities stable from Oct 2 Friday close; no new catalyst; weekend hallucination active, using confirmed Oct 2 baseline). Oct 5, 2026: Monday — EFFR for Oct 2 published at 3.88% (fifteenth business day at 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). First business day post-weekend. CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~22% / hold ~78%; Kalshi ~20% hike / ~80% hold; Polymarket ~17% hike / ~83% hold. Hold remains the overwhelming market base case. No major data releases today. Next catalyst: Oct 14 (Wed): CPI September 2026 (BLS). Next catalyst: Oct 14 (Wed): CPI September 2026 (BLS). Oct 6, 2026: Tuesday — EFFR for Oct 5 published at 3.88% (stable; sixteenth business day at 3.75%–4.00% range; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch October 28 hike: ~17% / hold ~83%; Kalshi ~18% hike / ~82% hold; Polymarket ~17.5% hike / ~82.5% hold. Hold is the overwhelming market base case. No major data releases today. FOMC Minutes (Sep 15–16 meeting) released October 7 — first look at committee deliberations behind the September hike. Next catalyst: Oct 14 (Wed): CPI September 2026 (BLS). Oct 7, 2026: Wednesday — EFFR for Oct 6 at 3.88% (stable; IORB 3.90%). CME FedWatch October 28: ~20% hike / ~80% hold; Kalshi ~20% hike / ~80% hold; Polymarket ~18% hike / ~82% hold. FOMC Minutes released October 7 at 2:00pm ET — asymmetric risk event; markets awaited September deliberation details. December 9 hike: ~84–86% (CME) — “skip October, hike December” is now market consensus. Next catalyst: Oct 14 CPI September 2026 (BLS). Oct 8, 2026: Thursday — EFFR Oct 7 expected 3.88% (stable; IORB 3.90%). FOMC Minutes (Sep 15–16) hawkish: unanimous hike support; majority favor additional hike before year-end. CME FedWatch Oct 28: ~82% hold / ~18% hike; Kalshi ~84% hold; Polymarket ~82% hold. Gov. Waller (Istanbul): “flexibility on timing” — October pause possible; more hikes coming; futures pricing 85% chance of at least one December hike. December 9: ~84–85% (CME) — confirmed by Waller speech. Next catalyst: Oct 14 CPI September 2026 (BLS). Oct 10, 2026: Quiet Saturday. October 28 odds: CME ~81.6% hold / ~18.4% hike. December 9 hike: ~84–85%. All eyes on Oct 14 CPI. Oct 11, 2026: Quiet Sunday. Odds unchanged: CME ~81.6% hold / ~18.4% hike. Oct 14 CPI consensus: headline ~3.7% YoY; core ~0.2% MoM. Oct 12, 2026 (Columbus Day): Bond markets closed; equities open. No EFFR; no data releases. CME FedWatch October 28: ~82% hold / ~18% hike (unchanged from Oct 11); Kalshi ~82% hold; Polymarket ~84% hold. December 9 hike: ~75–80% (CME; softened from ~84–85%). Sep CPI (Oct 14, released): 3.7% YoY headline / 0.3% MoM core — hot. Oct 13, 2026: October 28 probabilities stable: CME ~80% hold / ~18% hike. December 9 hike: ~84–85% (CME; repriced from Columbus Day figure). All eyes on Sep CPI (Oct 14, 8:30am ET) — last major inflation read before Oct 28 FOMC. Oct 14, 2026 (CPI Day): Sep CPI released: headline 3.7% YoY (above 3.6% est; up from 3.4% Aug), core 0.3% MoM / 2.6% YoY (above 2.5% est). Gasoline +9.1% — accounted for >half of monthly rise. October 28: CME ~34% hike / ~66% hold (eased from post-CPI peak of ~44%; hold is base case). December 9 hike: ~88–90% (CME; maintained on hot core). Oct 16, 2026 (Warsh Bangkok): No October signal from Warsh — CME FedWatch October 28: ~16% hike / ~84% hold (collapsed from ~34% pre-speech; HOLD is now the strong base case, 5-in-6 odds). Oct 17, 2026 (Quiet Saturday — pre-meeting blackout): No new data; no Fed speeches (FOMC blackout begins). Markets stable from Friday close: CME October 28 ~16% hike / ~84% hold. December 9: ~89% (CME; stable).  Oct 18, 2026 (Quiet Sunday — FOMC blackout): No data releases; no Fed speeches. FOMC blackout continues (day 2). CME October 28: ~15.5% hike / ~84.5% hold (stable). December 9: ~89% (CME; stable).  Oct 19, 2026 (Monday — FOMC blackout day 3): No data releases; FOMC blackout continues (day 3). CME October 28: ~15% hike / ~84% hold (stable). December 9: ~89% (CME; stable).  Oct 20, 2026 (Tuesday — FOMC blackout day 4): No data releases; FOMC blackout continues (day 4). CME October 28: ~17% hike / ~83% hold (slight uptick from ~15%). December 9: ~89% (CME; stable).  Oct 21, 2026 (Wednesday — FOMC blackout day 5): No data releases; FOMC blackout continues (day 5). CME October 28: ~15% hike / ~85% hold (slight easing from ~17%). December 9: ~90% (CME; stable). Oct 22, 2026: FOMC blackout continues (day 6). Jobless claims (wk Oct 18): 194K (beat 200K est; 4-wk avg 197,750; 3-month low). CME October 28: ~15% hike / ~85% hold (stable). December 9: ~90% (CME; stable). Oct 23, 2026: FOMC blackout continues (day 7). Bond rally on AI-stock selloff; 10Y fell to 4.95% (below 5%). CME October 28: ~7% hike / ~93% hold (sharp drop). December 9: ~80% (CME; eased).  Oct 24, 2026: Weekend — no releases. FOMC blackout day 8. CME Oct 28: ~10% hike / ~90% hold (uptick from ~7% Oct 22; Friday close; Kalshi ~7%). December 9: ~80% (CME; stable).  Oct 25, 2026: Sunday — no data releases. FOMC blackout day 9; decision in 3 days. CME Oct 28: ~10% hike / ~90% hold (unchanged; markets closed; Kalshi ~7%). December 9: ~80% (CME; stable). Oct 26 (Mon) — Blackout day 10: FOMC meeting started Oct 27; decision Wednesday Oct 28 at 2pm ET. No new data releases. CME Oct 28: ~9.4% hike / ~90.6% hold (FXStreet Oct 26; essentially unchanged; Kalshi ~7%). December 9: ~79.7% (FXStreet Oct 26; ~80%; stable). Oct 27 (Tue) — FOMC Day 1 (decision today (Oct 28) 2pm ET): Meeting underway; blackout day 11. BNY Markets' Velis (FXStreet Oct 27): hold expected; at least one dissent favoring a hike; December seen as cycle peak. CME Oct 28: ~9.4% hike / ~90.6% hold (essentially unchanged; Kalshi ~7%). December 9: ~79.7% (~80%; stable).
Oct 28 — DECISION DAY: FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET (18:00 UTC); Warsh press conference at 2:30pm ET. CME morning odds: ~9.4% hike / ~90.6% hold (stable; FXStreet Oct 28). Kalshi: ~5% hike. December 9 hike probability: ~84.3% (up from ~79.7%; FXStreet Oct 28 morning). 2–3 hawkish dissents expected (Hammack, Logan; Kashkari possible).

In plain English: Eight times a year, the Federal Reserve’s committee meets to decide whether to raise, lower, or hold interest rates. Their decision ripples through the entire economy within weeks.

June 17 meeting confirmed hawkish pivot: easing bias removed, forward guidance dropped, statement cut to ~130 words. Dot plot (18 dots; Warsh withheld his): 9 see at least one hike in 2026, 8 no change, 1 cut. Median year-end 2026 projection at 3.8% — implying one 25bps hike likely in H2. July 29 hold (9–3): Three dissenters wanted +25bps hike immediately; most hawkish vote since Sep 2016. Most officials now project year-end 2026 rate of 3.6–4.1%. June CPI (Jul 14): 3.5% YoY; core 2.6% — biggest monthly price decline in six years; energy-led. June PPI (Jul 15): −0.3% MoM; +5.5% YoY; core PPI +0.1% (down from +0.8% May). Back-to-back CPI/PPI misses eased near-term pipeline inflation. May CPI: 4.2% YoY; energy +40.5% YoY (Iran war shock); core 2.9%. Core PCE (May, Jun 25): 3.4% YoY. Q2 GDP (Jul 30): +1.5% annualized — down from +2.1% Q1. Next cut odds near zero; CPI July 2026 (Aug 12): 3.4% YoY / core 2.5% YoY — eased from 3.5%/2.6% June; in line with consensus. September hike ~84–87% probability (CME FedWatch, Sep 16 decision day; entering 2pm ET announcement; ~84.1% Sep 14 close); October hike ~55%+ (repriced higher post-Warsh); Polymarket September: ~85–89% (Sep 15–16; decision day).Core PCE June 2026 (Jul 30): 3.3% YoY (down from 3.4% May); monthly +0.1% vs +0.2% expected — slight cooling but still elevated. Iran ceasefire ended Jul 31; US-Iran negotiations at impasse; Brent crude near $90/bbl (supply uncertainty persists). “Zero cuts in 2026?” Polymarket: ~84% (Aug 5–6; eased from ~89%). ISM Manufacturing PMI July 2026 (Aug 3 result): 55.6 (vs 54.0 consensus; highest since May 2022). Prices Paid: 71.1 (eased from 73.0; 5-month low; still above 70 for 6th straight month). Employment in expansion for first time in 33 months. ISM Services PMI July 2026 (released Aug 5): 54.1 — slight miss vs. 54.5 expected (prior 54.0); Prices Paid reversed above 70 (hawkish); Employment dropped into contraction; Business Activity and New Orders both accelerated. Mixed signals drove further mild dovish repricing. Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 1, released Aug 6): Initial 199,000; 4-week avg 198,750 (lowest this cycle); continued claims 1,801,000 (+24k). Jobs Report July (released Aug 7): −23,000 NFP — massive miss vs. +83k consensus; first payroll contraction in months. Unemployment 4.1%; LFP 61.4% (5-yr low). Wages +0.1% MoM, +3.2% YoY. Gov’t −53k; manufacturing +5k; retail −19k; prior months revised −103k combined. Triggered CME repricing to ~44% September hike (further to ~40% Aug 9; hold leads ~60%; Kalshi ~65% hold). Jackson Hole: Aug 27–29 — Warsh to speak; key Fed communication event before Sep 16 decision. CPI July 2026 (released Aug 12): 3.4% YoY — eased from 3.5% June; monthly +0.1%; core +0.2% MoM / 2.5% YoY (down from 2.6%). Shelter +0.1%; food +0.1%; used cars +0.4%; airline fares +2.2%. In line with consensus; CME repriced to ~50/50 (from ~40%/60% Aug 11). Cleveland Fed Nowcast (Aug 11, pre-release): Forecast ~3.42% YoY / core: +0.21% MoM / 2.52% YoY — actual matched closely at 3.4%/2.5%. August 2026 nowcast: headline ~3.22% YoY; core PCE ~3.36% (slight reacceleration — potential red flag ahead of Sep 16 FOMC). Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 8, released Aug 13): Initial 209,000 (up 9k; first above 200k in 3 weeks); 4-week avg 199,000 (unchanged at cycle low); modest dovish drift. PPI July 2026 (released Aug 13): 0.0% MoM (flat; below 0.1–0.2% expected); YoY 4.7%. Goods −0.7%; core PPI +0.4%. Dovish headline; CME hold moved to ~65–68% post-PPI. Retail Sales July 2026 (released Aug 14): −0.6% MoM (miss vs. +0.1% expected); +5.0% YoY (cooling from +6.7% June). Motor vehicles −1.8%; nonstore −2.2%; clothing +1.9%. Second straight dovish data surprise; CME September hold leads ~68% (Aug 14 close). TD Securities (Aug 14): Expects Warsh to use Jackson Hole to reset communication — greater clarity on the Fed’s reaction function to restore credibility. FOMC Minutes (July 29 meeting, released Aug 19, 2026): Hawkish — “Many participants assessed higher rates would likely be necessary if inflation did not fall.” Hawkish sentiment extended well beyond the 3 formal dissenters; broader committee concern that financial conditions may not be sufficiently restrictive. Dissenters argued supply shocks and AI investment boom risk entrenching inflation above 2%; stable labor market gives room to prioritize price stability. Post-minutes CME pre-speech: ~36%; post-Warsh Jackson Hole speech (Aug 29): ~57% hike / ~43% hold — hawkish repricing of ~+20pp. CPI August 2026 (released Sep 11): 3.4% YoY; core 2.4% YoY. Core PCE August (released Sep 30): 3.0% YoY (miss vs. 3.3% expected; BEA annual revision effect); +0.2% MoM. Sep 16, 2026 — Hike +25bps (12–0): Target range raised to 3.75%–4.00%; first hike since 2023; SEP median year-end 2026: 4.1%; 16 of 18 participants see at least one more 2026 hike; Warsh: “Inflation has been too high for too long.” Jobs Report Sep (released Oct 2): +29K NFP (major miss vs. ~90K consensus); unemployment 4.2%; July revised to +21K (was −23K). FOMC Minutes (Sep 15–16, released Oct 7): Hawkish — unanimous hike support confirmed; majority of participants favor another hike before year-end. Gov. Waller (Istanbul, Oct 8): “Flexibility on timing” — October pause possible; more hikes expected; futures pricing ~85% chance of December hike. Oct 13, 2026: Quiet Tuesday ahead of Sep CPI. Dollar/yields easing. October 28: CME ~80% hold / ~18% hike. December 9: ~84–85% hike (CME). Sep CPI released (Oct 14): Headline 3.7% YoY (above consensus); core 0.3% MoM / 2.6% YoY — slightly hot. Gasoline +9.1%. October hike odds surged to ~44% intraday then cooled; as of Oct 15: CME ~34% hike / ~66% hold. December 9: ~88–90%. Oct 15, 2026 (PPI + Retail): Sep PPI 6.3% YoY (vs 5.3% est; hot; monthly +1.3%); Sep Retail Sales +0.8% MoM (beat; gas-driven; ex-gas +0.2%). Oct 16, 2026 (Warsh Bangkok): No October rate signal — odds collapsed to CME ~16% hike / ~84% hold. Oct 17, 2026 (Quiet Saturday — pre-meeting blackout): No new data; no Fed speeches. FOMC blackout begins ahead of Oct 27–28 meeting. October 28 odds stable: CME ~16% hike / ~84% hold. December 9 hike: ~89% (CME; stable).  Oct 18, 2026 (Quiet Sunday — FOMC blackout): No data releases; no Fed speeches. FOMC blackout continues (day 2 of pre-meeting period). CME October 28: ~15.5% hike / ~84.5% hold (stable). December 9 hike: ~89% (CME; stable).  Oct 19, 2026 (Monday — FOMC blackout day 3): No data releases; FOMC blackout continues (day 3 of pre-meeting period). CME October 28: ~15% hike / ~84% hold (stable); Polymarket ~14% hike. December 9 hike: ~89% (CME; stable).  Oct 20, 2026 (Tuesday — FOMC blackout day 4): No data releases; FOMC blackout continues (day 4 of pre-meeting period). CME October 28: ~17% hike / ~83% hold (slight uptick); Polymarket ~14% hike. December 9 hike: ~89% (CME; stable).  Oct 21, 2026 (Wednesday — FOMC blackout day 5): No data releases; FOMC blackout continues (day 5 of pre-meeting period). CME October 28: ~15% hike / ~85% hold (slight easing); Kalshi ~13% hike. December 9 hike: ~90% (CME; stable). Oct 22, 2026: FOMC blackout continues (day 6 of pre-meeting period). Jobless claims (wk Oct 18): 194K (vs 200K est; 4-wk avg 197,750; 3-month low). CME October 28: ~15% hike / ~85% hold (stable); Kalshi ~13% hike. December 9 hike: ~90% (CME; stable). Oct 23, 2026: FOMC blackout continues (day 7 of pre-meeting period). AI-stock selloff drove flight-to-safety bond rally; 10Y yield fell 19 bps to 4.95% (below 5%). CME October 28: ~7% hike / ~93% hold (sharp drop from ~15%; Kalshi ~6%). December 9 hike: ~80% (CME; eased from ~90%).  Oct 24, 2026: Weekend — no data releases. FOMC blackout day 8; decision in 4 days (Oct 28, 2pm ET). CME Oct 28: ~10% hike / ~90% hold (uptick from ~7% post-AI selloff; Friday close; Kalshi ~7%). December 9: ~80% (CME; stable).  Oct 25, 2026: Sunday — no data releases. FOMC blackout day 9; decision in 3 days (Oct 28, 2pm ET). CME Oct 28: ~10% hike / ~90% hold (unchanged; markets closed; Kalshi ~7%). December 9: ~80% (CME; stable). Oct 26 (Mon) — Blackout day 10: FOMC meeting started Oct 27; decision Wednesday Oct 28 at 2pm ET. No new data releases. CME Oct 28: ~9.4% hike / ~90.6% hold (FXStreet Oct 26; essentially unchanged; Kalshi ~7%). December 9: ~79.7% (FXStreet Oct 26; ~80%; stable). Oct 27 (Tue) — FOMC Day 1 (decision today (Oct 28) 2pm ET): Meeting underway; blackout day 11. BNY Markets' Velis (FXStreet Oct 27): hold expected; at least one dissent favoring a hike; December seen as cycle peak. CME Oct 28: ~9.4% hike / ~90.6% hold (essentially unchanged; Kalshi ~7%). December 9: ~79.7% (~80%; stable).
Oct 28 — DECISION DAY: FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET (18:00 UTC); Warsh press conference at 2:30pm ET. CME morning odds: ~9.4% hike / ~90.6% hold (stable; FXStreet Oct 28). Kalshi: ~5% hike. December 9 hike probability: ~84.3% (up from ~79.7%; FXStreet Oct 28 morning). 2–3 hawkish dissents expected (Hammack, Logan; Kashkari possible).

In plain English: The Fed just raised interest rates for the first time in three years, pressing the brake pedal harder to fight inflation. Higher rates mean more expensive mortgages, car loans, and credit cards — and better returns on savings accounts.