Fed Tracker

75 bps of cuts delivered since late 2024. Historic 4-way dissent at April meeting — Miran sought a cut; Hammack, Kashkari & Logan objected to the easing-bias language. First 4-dissent vote since October 1992. Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22, replacing Powell. May CPI (released Jun 10): 4.2% YoY — highest since April 2023 — energy prices +40.5% YoY (Iran war shock); core at 2.9% YoY. June 17, 2026 — Unanimous 12-0 hold. Warsh’s first meeting as Chair delivered a sweeping communication overhaul: statement pared to ~130 words (down from 341 in April), easing bias fully removed, and forward guidance dropped. Warsh withheld his dot (“not helpful in the conduct of policy”). Among 18 dots submitted: 9 penciled in at least one hike in 2026, 8 projected no change, and 1 saw a cut. Median year-end dot raised to 3.8% (from 3.4%); inflation forecast lifted to 3.6% headline / 3.3% core. Warsh to form task forces to overhaul major Fed operations by year-end.

In plain English: This is the interest rate banks charge each other to borrow money overnight. When it goes up, borrowing becomes more expensive for everyone — mortgages, car loans, and credit cards all cost more. When it goes down, borrowing gets cheaper and savings accounts typically earn less.

Next FOMC decision: July 29, 2026 at 2:00pm ET. Market odds for July (Jul 12): ~78% hold / ~22% hike (Polymarket, unchanged from prior day); CME FedWatch: ~65.8% hold / ~34.2% hike (Jul 11 close). CME hike odds eased slightly to 34.2% from 36.3% Thursday; Polymarket steady heading into June CPI on July 14. Polymarket prices a ~77% chance of zero Fed rate cuts in all of 2026. CME FedWatch prices ~50–55% odds of a hike at the September meeting. FOMC minutes (Jul 8, released 2:00pm ET): Confirmed hawkish tone. Committee revealed as split 9-to-8 on a 2026 rate hike, with inflation forecasts revised sharply higher for 2026 and 2027. A few policymakers judged another rate hike could become appropriate should inflation remain elevated. BofA subsequently revised its 2026 outlook, calling for 75bps of rate hikes (three quarter-point increases). Next major catalyst: June CPI (July 14). Supreme Court ruling (Jun 29): In a 5–4 decision, the Court ruled Trump cannot fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, affirming Federal Reserve independence while her case continues. June BLS jobs report (Jul 2): only 57,000 payrolls added — badly missed 115k consensus; May revised down to 129k; 720,000 left labor force; participation rate fell to 61.5% (lowest since Mar 2021); unemployment edged down to 4.2%. Warsh at ECB Forum (Jul 1): said inflation “too high,” declined to hint at July decision. ISM Manufacturing PMI June: 53.3% (released Jul 1). Core PCE May 2026 (Jun 25): 3.4% YoY — above the Fed’s own 3.3% forecast. Meetings follow Sep 15–16 and Oct 27–28.

In plain English: Eight times a year, the Federal Reserve’s committee meets to decide whether to raise, lower, or hold interest rates. Their decision ripples through the entire economy within weeks.

June 17 meeting confirmed hawkish pivot: easing bias removed, forward guidance dropped, statement cut to ~130 words. Dot plot (18 dots; Warsh withheld his): 9 see at least one hike in 2026, 8 no change, 1 cut. Median year-end 2026 projection at 3.8% — implying one 25bps hike likely in H2. May CPI: 4.2% YoY; energy +40.5% YoY (Iran war shock); core 2.9%. Core PCE (May, Jun 25): 3.4% YoY — slightly above the Fed’s own 3.3% June forecast. Next cut odds near zero; hike risk elevated for fall 2026.

In plain English: The Fed is keeping rates high to fight inflation, but not raising them further. Think of it as pressing the brake pedal without pressing it harder.