Current Target Range
3.50%
TARGET RANGE: 3.50% – 3.75%
EFFECTIVE RATE: 3.63%
⬤ On Hold
75 bps of cuts delivered since late 2024. Historic 4-way dissent at April meeting — Miran sought a cut; Hammack, Kashkari & Logan objected to the easing-bias language. First 4-dissent vote since October 1992.
In plain English: This is the interest rate banks charge each other to borrow money overnight. When it goes up, borrowing becomes more expensive for everyone — mortgages, car loans, and credit cards all cost more. When it goes down, borrowing gets cheaper and savings accounts typically earn less.
Next FOMC Meeting
June 16–17, 2026
Time until decision:
--Days
--Hours
--Mins
--Secs
Decision expected June 17 at 2:00pm ET. Press conference to follow.
In plain English: Eight times a year, the Federal Reserve’s committee meets to decide whether to raise, lower, or hold interest rates. Their decision ripples through the entire economy within weeks.
Policy Stance
Restricted
Neutral
Neutral
Fed funds rate sits above neutral. April CPI at 3.8% YoY — up from 3.3% in March — has all but eliminated near-term cut odds. Market pricing: ~98% hold at June meeting.
In plain English: The Fed is keeping rates high to fight inflation, but not raising them further. Think of it as pressing the brake pedal without pressing it harder.
2026 Rate Path (Market Implied)
Jun — Hold ~98%
Jul — Hold ~91%
Sep — Hold ~82%
Jul — Hold ~91%
Sep — Hold ~82%
What the current rate means for you
🏠 Mortgages
30-year fixed rates remain elevated near 7%. Buying a home costs significantly more per month than it did in 2021.
💰 Savings
High-yield savings accounts and money market funds are paying 4–5%. This is historically good for savers.
💳 Credit Cards
Average credit card interest rates are near record highs above 20%. Carrying a balance is very costly right now.
🚘 Auto Loans
New car loan rates are running 7–9%. Monthly payments on a typical vehicle are hundreds more than in 2020.
FOMC Meeting History
LAST 8 MEETINGS
| Date | Decision | Target Range | Vote | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Hold | 3.50% – 3.75% | 8–4 Miran dissented for cut; Hammack, Kashkari & Logan dissented vs. easing-bias language | Historic 4-dissent split — first since Oct 1992. Inflation at 3.8% YoY; easing bias retained in statement over hawkish objections. |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Hold | 3.50% – 3.75% | 8–1 8 voted to hold, 1 wanted to raise rates | Tariff pass-through cited as upside inflation risk. |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Hold | 3.50% – 3.75% | 10–0 | Unanimous hold. Watching labor market and inflation trajectory. |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Cut –25bps | 3.50% – 3.75% | 9–1 9 voted to cut, 1 wanted to hold rates | Final cut of 2025 cycle. Dot plot revised higher for 2026. |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Hold | 3.75% – 4.00% | 10–0 | Paused easing cycle. Inflation progress slowing. |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Cut –25bps | 3.75% – 4.00% | 10–0 | Second cut of easing cycle. Labor market softening flagged. |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Hold | 4.00% – 4.25% | 10–0 | Held after June cut. Monitoring data. |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Cut –25bps | 4.00% – 4.25% | 9–1 1 dissent for hold | First cut of easing cycle. Inflation progress deemed sufficient. |
Rate History
JUN 2025 – PRESENT
Federal Funds Target Rate Upper Bound (%)
Key Terms Explained
FOMC
Federal Open Market Committee — the group of 12 Federal Reserve officials who vote on interest rates. They meet 8 times per year.
Basis Points (bps)
A unit for measuring interest rates. 100 basis points = 1%. So a 25bps cut means rates dropped by 0.25 percentage points.
Target Range
The Fed sets a range (e.g. 3.50–3.75%) rather than a single number. Banks trade overnight loans within this band.
Effective Rate
The actual rate banks are trading at, which sits within the target range. This is what financial markets track most closely.
Neutral Rate
The theoretical interest rate that neither stimulates nor slows the economy. The Fed estimates it around 2.5–3%. Above it = restrictive.
Market Implied Probability
What traders are betting on for the next Fed decision, based on futures markets. An 82% hold probability means most expect no change.
About This Tracker
This page is updated daily at 9:00am ET by an automated agent that pulls the latest Federal Reserve data from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) and federalreserve.gov. Meeting history, vote breakdowns, and rate projections reflect official Federal Reserve releases. Market-implied probabilities are derived from federal funds futures pricing.