The Macro Brief https://themacrobrief.net Independent economic analysis for the informed investor. Weekly macro coverage, Fed tracking, and indicator deep-dives by Connor Leary. en-us © 2026 Connor Leary / The Macro Brief cleary0720@gmail.com (Connor Leary) cleary0720@gmail.com (Connor Leary) The Tariff Dividend: How America's Trade Gap Has Narrowed — and What It's Actually Cost https://themacrobrief.net/articles/2026-05-tariff-trade-deficit.html America's goods and services deficit has compressed by more than half in early 2026, but beneath the headline figures lies trade diversion, inflation pass-through, and unanswered questions about long-term competitiveness. Thu, 14 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://themacrobrief.net/articles/2026-05-tariff-trade-deficit.html Trade Policy cleary0720@gmail.com (Connor Leary) Inflation Relapse: The April Price Surge That Rewrites the Fed's 2026 Playbook https://themacrobrief.net/articles/2026-05-inflation-relapse.html A hotter-than-expected April CPI reading — driven by an energy shock, tariff pass-through, and sticky services — has erased the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year and handed an unenviable inheritance to incoming chair Kevin Warsh. Thu, 14 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://themacrobrief.net/articles/2026-05-inflation-relapse.html Inflation cleary0720@gmail.com (Connor Leary) The Price of Energy: Inside the Oil Market Forces Threatening to Reignite Inflation https://themacrobrief.net/articles/2025-04-oil-prices.html A confluence of supply restraint, geopolitical friction, and fragile demand has crude oil back at the center of the macroeconomic debate — complicating an already delicate moment for the Federal Reserve and American households alike. Wed, 30 Apr 2025 08:00:00 +0000 https://themacrobrief.net/articles/2025-04-oil-prices.html Energy & Commodities cleary0720@gmail.com (Connor Leary)